Game plan · Week 14
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 35.2 points this week, give or take 46 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 35.5.
A typical week lands between -11 and 81. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -24.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 15 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at NE Thu 8:15 PM ET | MIN 55% | 55% | +0.3 | No market line yet. |
| CHI at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET | CHI 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| TB at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | BAL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| HOU at WSH Sun 1:00 PM ET | WSH 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| ATL at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET | CLE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| IND at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | IND 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NO at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET | CAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| TEN at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET | DET 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DEN at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET | DEN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LAC at LV Sun 4:05 PM ET | LV 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NYG at SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | SEA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LAR at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| KC at CIN Sun 4:25 PM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| BUF at GB Sun 8:20 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PIT at JAX Mon 8:15 PM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.