Predictions · Week 1
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA | SEA 61% ✓ | 59% | 59% | — | — | — | 61% | 61% | — | — | — | Tight agreement | NE 10, SEA 13 |
| SF at LAR | LAR 59% ✗ | 54% | 60% | — | — | — | 59% | 59% | — | — | — | Everything else | SF 27, LAR 7 |
| NO at DET | DET 71% ✓ | 67% | 70% | — | — | — | 71% | 71% | — | — | — | Tight agreement | NO 30, DET 31 |
| NYJ at TEN | TEN 54% ✗ | 53% | 54% | — | — | — | 54% | 54% | — | — | — | Coin flips | NYJ 23, TEN 10 |
| BAL at IND | BAL 57% ✓ | 50% | 41% | — | — | — | 43% | 43% | — | — | — | Everything else | BAL 41, IND 23 |
| ATL at PIT | PIT 70% ✓ | 65% | 69% | — | — | — | 70% | 70% | — | — | — | Tight agreement | ATL 13, PIT 20 |
| CHI at CAR | CHI 57% ✓ | 48% | 41% | — | — | — | 43% | 43% | — | — | — | Everything else | CHI 59, CAR 37 |
| BUF at HOU | BUF 51% ✓ | 59% | 46% | — | — | — | 49% | 49% | — | — | — | Big disagreement | BUF 36, HOU 31 |
| CLE at JAX | JAX 72% ✓ | 67% | 74% | — | — | — | 72% | 72% | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | CLE 10, JAX 34 |
| TB at CIN | CIN 62% ✓ | 61% | 60% | — | — | — | 62% | 62% | — | — | — | Tight agreement | TB 27, CIN 33 |
| MIA at LV | LV 55% ✓ | 42% | 59% | — | — | — | 55% | 55% | — | — | — | Big disagreement | MIA 13, LV 27 |
| GB at MIN | MIN 57% ✓ | 66% | 54% | — | — | — | 57% | 57% | — | — | — | Big disagreement | GB 22, MIN 39 |
| ARI at LAC | LAC 76% ✗ | 75% | 74% | — | — | — | 76% | 76% | — | — | — | Tight agreement | ARI 26, LAC 14 |
| WSH at PHI | PHI 69% ✓ | 65% | 67% | — | — | — | 69% | 69% | — | — | — | Tight agreement | WSH 22, PHI 24 |
| DAL at NYG | DAL 56% ✗ | 51% | 41% | — | — | — | 44% | 44% | — | — | — | Everything else | DAL 20, NYG 28 |
| DEN at KC | KC 56% ✓ | 52% | 57% | — | — | — | 56% | 56% | — | — | — | Everything else | DEN 10, KC 31 |
| Points this week | +33.3 | +64.8 | — | — | — | +63.3 | +63.3 | — | — | on 16 decided games | |||
| Right | 11/16 | 12/16 | — | — | — | 12/16 | 12/16 | — | — | ||||
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 6 games · favorite 5 for 6 so far
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
10–13
SEA over NE ✓
Elo 59% · Mkt 59% · Blend 61%
NE at SEA · Final
30–31
DET over NO ✓
Elo 67% · Mkt 70% · Blend 71%
NO at DET · Final
13–20
PIT over ATL ✓
Elo 65% · Mkt 69% · Blend 70%
ATL at PIT · Final
27–33
CIN over TB ✓
Elo 61% · Mkt 60% · Blend 62%
TB at CIN · Final
26–14
LAC over ARI ✗
Elo 75% · Mkt 74% · Blend 76%
ARI at LAC · Final
22–24
PHI over WSH ✓
Elo 65% · Mkt 67% · Blend 69%
WSH at PHI · Final
Big disagreement 3 games · favorite 3 for 3 so far
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time.
Coin flips 1 game · favorite 0 for 1 so far
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 1 game · favorite 1 for 1 so far
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 5 games · favorite 3 for 5 so far
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
27–7
LAR over SF ✗
Elo 54% · Mkt 60% · Blend 59%
SF at LAR · Final
41–23
BAL over IND ✓
Elo 50% · Mkt 59% · Blend 57%
BAL at IND · Final
59–37
CHI over CAR ✓
Elo 52% · Mkt 59% · Blend 57%
CHI at CAR · Final
20–28
DAL over NYG ✗
Elo 49% · Mkt 59% · Blend 56%
DAL at NYG · Final
10–31
KC over DEN ✓
Elo 52% · Mkt 57% · Blend 56%
DEN at KC · Final
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |