Predictions · Week 1

The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.

Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.

Game	Elo	Spread	Books	Kalshi	Polymarket	Blend	System	Crowd	Sharp crowd	Imp.	Spot	Result
NE at SEA	59%	59%	—	—	—	61%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	NE 10, SEA 13
SF at LAR	54%	60%	—	—	—	59%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	SF 27, LAR 7
TB at CIN	61%	60%	—	—	—	62%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	TB 27, CIN 33
NO at DET	67%	70%	—	—	—	71%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	NO 30, DET 31
NYJ at TEN	53%	54%	—	—	—	54%	—	—	—	—	Coin flips	NYJ 23, TEN 10
BAL at IND	50%	41%	—	—	—	43%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	BAL 41, IND 23
ATL at PIT	65%	69%	—	—	—	70%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	ATL 13, PIT 20
CHI at CAR	48%	41%	—	—	—	43%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	CHI 59, CAR 37
CLE at JAX	67%	74%	—	—	—	72%	—	—	—	—	Clear favorite, mild disagreement	CLE 10, JAX 34
BUF at HOU	59%	46%	—	—	—	49%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	BUF 36, HOU 31
MIA at LV	42%	59%	—	—	—	55%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	MIA 13, LV 27
GB at MIN	66%	54%	—	—	—	57%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	GB 22, MIN 39
WSH at PHI	65%	67%	—	—	—	69%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	WSH 22, PHI 24
ARI at LAC	75%	74%	—	—	—	76%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	ARI 26, LAC 14
DAL at NYG	51%	41%	—	—	—	44%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	DAL 20, NYG 28
DEN at KC	52%	57%	—	—	—	56%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	DEN 10, KC 31
Points this week	+33.3	+64.8	—	—	—	+63.3	—	—	—		on 16 decided games
Right	11/16	12/16	—	—	—	12/16	—	—	—

The spots

Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.

Tight agreement 6 games · favorite 5 for 6 so far

Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.

10–13

SEA over NE ✓

Elo 59% · Mkt 59% · Blend 61%

NE at SEA · Final

27–33

CIN over TB ✓

Elo 61% · Mkt 60% · Blend 62%

TB at CIN · Final

30–31

DET over NO ✓

Elo 67% · Mkt 70% · Blend 71%

NO at DET · Final

13–20

PIT over ATL ✓

Elo 65% · Mkt 69% · Blend 70%

ATL at PIT · Final

22–24

PHI over WSH ✓

Elo 65% · Mkt 67% · Blend 69%

WSH at PHI · Final

26–14

LAC over ARI ✗

Elo 75% · Mkt 74% · Blend 76%

ARI at LAC · Final

Big disagreement 3 games · favorite 3 for 3 so far

Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time.

MIN over GB ✓

Coin flips 1 game · favorite 0 for 1 so far

Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.

Clear favorite, mild disagreement 1 game · favorite 1 for 1 so far

The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).

10–34

JAX over CLE ✓

Elo 67% · Mkt 74% · Blend 72%

CLE at JAX · Final

Everything else 5 games · favorite 3 for 5 so far

The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.

27–7

LAR over SF ✗

Elo 54% · Mkt 60% · Blend 59%

SF at LAR · Final

41–23

BAL over IND ✓