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The gap between the models is where the points are.
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Scores and schedule from ESPN. Rest, lines and box scores from nflverse. Ratings seeded from FiveThirtyEight's final Elo and their history to 1920. Markets from The Odds API, Kalshi and Polymarket. Scoring follows FiveThirtyEight's forecasting game.
Data refreshed Fri 6:24 AM. Refreshes itself on visits: every 3 minutes on game days, otherwise every 30. How it works · FAQ · Data

Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, the ratings FiveThirtyEight made famous; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.
Create a free accountHow it worksSee this week's numbers

Week 1

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

123456789101112131415161718Wild CardDivisionalConf. Champ.Super Bowl
Thursday, Sep 10
NEPatriots
Elo: SEA 59%Spread: SEA 59%
10–13
SeahawksSEA
Away12:20 AMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
—
Elo 41%
Spread 41%
Maye
no pick
—
Elo 59%
Spread 59%
Lock (-34)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Friday, Sep 11
SF49ers
Elo: LAR 54%Spread: LAR 60%
27–7
RamsLAR
Neutral site12:35 AM
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 46%
Spread 40%
Purdy
no pick
—
Elo 54%
Spread 60%
Stafford
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Sunday, Sep 13
TBBuccaneers
Elo: CIN 61%Spread: CIN 60%
27–33
BengalsCIN
Away5:00 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
—
Elo 39%
Spread 40%
Mayfield
no pick
—
Elo 61%
Spread 60%
Burrow (+18)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
NOSaints
Elo: DET 67%Spread: DET 70%
30–31
LionsDET
Away5:00 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
—
Elo 33%
Spread 30%
Shough (-18)
no pick
—
Elo 67%
Spread 70%
Goff
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
NYJJets
Elo: TEN 53%Spread: TEN 54%
23–10
TitansTEN
Away5:00 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 47%
Spread 46%
Smith (+24)
no pick
—
Elo 53%
Spread 54%
Ward (+21)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
BALRavens
Elo: BAL 50%Spread: BAL 59%
41–23
ColtsIND
Away5:00 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 50%
Spread 59%
Jackson (+15)
no pick
—
Elo 50%
Spread 41%
Jones
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
ATLFalcons
Elo: PIT 65%Spread: PIT 69%
13–20
SteelersPIT
Away5:00 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
—
Elo 35%
Spread 31%
Rush (-29)
no pick
—
Elo 65%
Spread 69%
Rodgers
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
CHIBears
Elo: CHI 52%Spread: CHI 59%
59–37
PanthersCAR
Away5:00 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 52%
Spread 59%
Williams
no pick
—
Elo 48%
Spread 41%
Young
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
CLEBrowns
Elo: JAX 67%Spread: JAX 74%
10–34
JaguarsJAX
Away5:00 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 33%
Spread 26%
Watson (+38)
no pick
—
Elo 67%
Spread 74%
Lawrence
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Monday, Sep 14
DALCowboys
Elo: NYG 51%Spread: DAL 59%
20–28
GiantsNYG
Away12:20 AMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 49%
Spread 59%
Prescott (+19)
no pick
—
Elo 51%
Spread 41%
Dart
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Tuesday, Sep 15
DENBroncos
Elo: KC 52%Spread: KC 57%
10–31
ChiefsKC
Away12:15 AMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 48%
Spread 43%
Nix
no pick
—
Elo 52%
Spread 57%
Mahomes (+51)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
BUFBills
Elo: HOU 59%Spread: BUF 54%
36–31
TexansHOU
Away5:00 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 41%
Spread 54%
Allen (-11)
no pick
—
Elo 59%
Spread 46%
Stroud
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
MIADolphins
Elo: MIA 58%Spread: LV 59%
13–27
RaidersLV
Away8:25 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 58%
Spread 41%
Willis (+100)
no pick
—
Elo 42%
Spread 59%
Cousins (+78)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
GBPackers
Elo: MIN 66%Spread: MIN 54%
22–39
VikingsMIN
Away8:25 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
—
Elo 34%
Spread 46%
Love
no pick
—
Elo 66%
Spread 54%
Wentz (+47)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
WSHCommanders
Elo: PHI 65%Spread: PHI 67%
22–24
EaglesPHI
Away8:25 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
—
Elo 35%
Spread 33%
Daniels (+17)
no pick
—
Elo 65%
Spread 67%
Hurts (+19)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
ARICardinals
Elo: LAC 75%Spread: LAC 74%
26–14
ChargersLAC
Away8:25 PMHome
EloMarketSpreadYou· arcs grow toward the team each one favors; halfway round is a lock
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
—
Elo 25%
Spread 26%
Brissett (-44)
no pick
—
Elo 75%
Spread 74%
Herbert (+20)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.