Can you beat The System?
Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System, our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work.
- Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.
- Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
- Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.
Week 1
Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.
Wednesday, Sep 9
NEPatriots10–13
SeahawksSEA
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
—
Elo 41%
Spread 41%
Maye
no pick
—
Elo 59%
Spread 59%
Lock (−34 Elo)
Final: SEA 13, NE 10. Elo moved SEA 1625 → 1636, NE 1575 → 1564.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +9.8 · Elo +8.2
Read the post-game report →Thursday, Sep 10
SF49ers27–7
RamsLAR
Neutral siteFinal
—
Elo 46%
Spread 40%
Purdy
no pick
—
Elo 54%
Spread 60%
Stafford
Final: SF 27, LAR 7. Elo moved SF 1551 → 1584, LAR 1578 → 1545.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -9.8 · Elo -4.2
Read the post-game report →Sunday, Sep 13
NOSaints30–31
LionsDET
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
—
Elo 33%
Spread 30%
Shough (−18 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 67%
Spread 70%
Goff
Final: DET 31, NO 30. Elo moved DET 1531 → 1535, NO 1476 → 1472.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +16.6 · Elo +14.1
Read the post-game report →
NYJJets23–10
TitansTEN
AwayFinal
—
Elo 47%
Spread 46%
Smith (+24 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 53%
Spread 54%
Ward (+21 Elo)
Final: NYJ 23, TEN 10. Elo moved NYJ 1416 → 1444, TEN 1393 → 1364.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -4.2 · Elo -3.1
Read the post-game report →
BALRavens41–23
ColtsIND
AwayFinal
—
Elo 50%
Spread 59%
Jackson (+15 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 50%
Spread 41%
Jones
Final: BAL 41, IND 23. Elo moved BAL 1530 → 1559, IND 1502 → 1472.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +6.5 · Elo +0.0
Read the post-game report →
ATLFalcons13–20
SteelersPIT
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
—
Elo 35%
Spread 31%
Rush (−29 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 65%
Spread 69%
Rodgers
Final: PIT 20, ATL 13. Elo moved PIT 1512 → 1526, ATL 1479 → 1465.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +16.0 · Elo +12.8
Read the post-game report →
CHIBears59–37
PanthersCAR
AwayFinal
—
Elo 52%
Spread 59%
Williams
no pick
—
Elo 48%
Spread 41%
Young
Final: CHI 59, CAR 37. Elo moved CHI 1527 → 1557, CAR 1461 → 1431.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +6.5 · Elo +2.0
Read the post-game report →
BUFBills36–31
TexansHOU
AwayFinal
—
Elo 41%
Spread 54%
Allen (−11 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 59%
Spread 46%
Stroud
Final: BUF 36, HOU 31. Elo moved BUF 1573 → 1595, HOU 1578 → 1556.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +1.0 · Elo -9.8
Read the post-game report →
CLEBrowns10–34
JaguarsJAX
AwayFinal
—
Elo 33%
Spread 26%
Watson (+38 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 67%
Spread 74%
Lawrence
Final: JAX 34, CLE 10. Elo moved JAX 1551 → 1571, CLE 1444 → 1423.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +17.2 · Elo +14.1
Read the post-game report →
TBBuccaneers27–33
BengalsCIN
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
—
Elo 39%
Spread 40%
Mayfield
no pick
—
Elo 61%
Spread 60%
Burrow (+18 Elo)
Final: CIN 33, TB 27. Elo moved CIN 1490 → 1505, TB 1481 → 1466.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +10.6 · Elo +9.8
Read the post-game report →
MIADolphins13–27
RaidersLV
AwayFinal
—
Elo 58%
Spread 41%
Willis (+100 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 42%
Spread 59%
Cousins (+78 Elo)
Final: LV 27, MIA 13. Elo moved LV 1387 → 1420, MIA 1472 → 1440.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +4.8 · Elo -8.6
Read the post-game report →
GBPackers22–39
VikingsMIN
AwayFinal
—
Elo 34%
Spread 46%
Love
no pick
—
Elo 66%
Spread 54%
Wentz (+47 Elo)
Final: MIN 39, GB 22. Elo moved MIN 1536 → 1555, GB 1519 → 1500.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +6.5 · Elo +13.4
Read the post-game report →
ARICardinals26–14
ChargersLAC
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
—
Elo 25%
Spread 26%
Brissett (−44 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 75%
Spread 74%
Herbert (+20 Elo)
Final: ARI 26, LAC 14. Elo moved ARI 1446 → 1488, LAC 1523 → 1481.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -32.8 · Elo -31.2
Read the post-game report →
WSHCommanders22–24
EaglesPHI
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
—
Elo 35%
Spread 33%
Daniels (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 65%
Spread 67%
Hurts (+19 Elo)
Final: PHI 24, WSH 22. Elo moved PHI 1532 → 1539, WSH 1474 → 1467.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +15.4 · Elo +12.8
Read the post-game report →
DALCowboys20–28
GiantsNYG
AwayFinal
—
Elo 49%
Spread 59%
Prescott (+19 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 51%
Spread 41%
Dart
Final: NYG 28, DAL 20. Elo moved NYG 1453 → 1474, DAL 1470 → 1449.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -6.4 · Elo +1.0
Read the post-game report →Monday, Sep 14
DENBroncos10–31
ChiefsKC
AwayFinal
—
Elo 48%
Spread 43%
Nix
no pick
—
Elo 52%
Spread 57%
Mahomes (+51 Elo)
Final: KC 31, DEN 10. Elo moved KC 1488 → 1518, DEN 1577 → 1547.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +5.6 · Elo +2.0
Read the post-game report →