Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 10, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 15, 6:00 PM · closed
Kansas City Chiefs1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46)
Atlanta Falcons
0–1 · Elo 1465 · Cooper Rush (-26) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | KC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 61% | 39% | 61% | ATL 1465 vs KC 1518, implied spread ATL +3.1 |
| Closing spread | KC 63% | 37% | 63% | ATL +4.5 |
| The blend | KC 65% | 35% | 65% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Falcons: Elo 61%, market 63%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 26 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Rest: ATL 7 days, KC 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: ATL -26 (Cooper Rush), KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.