New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers
Game data updated 5 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 11, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 22, 9:05 PM · dome
New York Jets1–0 · Elo 1444 · Geno Smith (+22)
Los Angeles Chargers
0–1 · Elo 1481 · Justin Herbert (+18) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | NYJ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LAC 61% | 61% | 39% | LAC 1481 vs NYJ 1444, implied spread LAC −3.2 |
| Closing spread | LAC 76% | 76% | 24% | LAC -9.5 |
| The blend | LAC 72% | 72% | 28% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Jets: Elo 61%, market 76%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LAC 6 days, NYJ 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LAC +18 (Justin Herbert), NYJ +22 (Geno Smith). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.