Predictions · Week 11
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.
| Game | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND at HOU | 69% | 66% | — | — | — | 69% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Fri 1:15 AM |
| MIA at BUF | 67% | 80% | — | — | — | 77% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| NO at CHI | 73% | 69% | — | — | — | 70% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| TEN at DAL | 68% | 69% | — | — | — | 70% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| TB at DET | 61% | 63% | — | — | — | 64% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| ARI at KC | 72% | 80% | — | — | — | 78% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| JAX at NYG | 46% | 46% | — | — | — | 46% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sun 6:00 PM |
| BAL at CAR | 38% | 37% | — | — | — | 35% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| NYJ at LAC | 61% | 76% | — | — | — | 72% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 9:05 PM |
| LV at DEN | 68% | 71% | — | — | — | 72% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 9:25 PM |
| PIT at PHI | 65% | 66% | — | — | — | 68% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 9:25 PM |
| MIN at SF | 48% | 60% | — | — | — | 57% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Mon 1:20 AM |
| CIN at WSH | 55% | 46% | — | — | — | 48% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Tue 1:15 AM |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 6 games
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
HOU over IND
Elo 69% · Mkt 66% · Blend 69%
IND at HOU · Fri 1 AM
DAL over TEN
Elo 68% · Mkt 69% · Blend 70%
TEN at DAL · Sun 6 PM
DET over TB
Elo 61% · Mkt 63% · Blend 64%
TB at DET · Sun 6 PM
BAL over CAR
Elo 62% · Mkt 63% · Blend 65%
BAL at CAR · Sun 6 PM
DEN over LV
Elo 68% · Mkt 71% · Blend 72%
LV at DEN · Sun 9 PM
PHI over PIT
Elo 65% · Mkt 66% · Blend 68%
PIT at PHI · Sun 9 PM
Big disagreement 3 games
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time.
Coin flips 2 games
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 2 games
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 17 | +78.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 17 | +77.4 |
| 3 | The System | 17 | +77.4 |
| 4 | Elo (the model) | 17 | +45.3 |