Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 11, 2026 · Ford Field · Sunday, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET · dome
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3–5 · Elo 1523 · Baker Mayfield · off a bye
Detroit Lions
5–2 · Elo 1569 · Jared Goff · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | TB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 60% | 60% | 40% | DET 1569 vs TB 1523, implied spread DET −2.7 |
| The blend | DET 60% | 60% | 40% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
No market line yet.
Details
- Rest: DET 7 days, TB 14 days. TB off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. DET: Jared Goff (0 Elo). TB: Baker Mayfield (0 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Emeka Egbuka | WR | Out | Foot · out |
| TB | Yaya Diaby | LB | Out | Knee - MCL · Head coach Todd Bowles said that Diaby (knee) has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain and won't be available for Sunday's game against the Bears, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| DET | Jimmy Rolder | LB | Out | Hamstring · Rolder will miss the remainder of the season due to a hamstring injury, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| DET | Kerby Joseph | S | Out | Knee · Joseph (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Jack Campbell | LB | Doubtful | Neck · The Lions announced Monday that "preliminary indications are positive" for Campbell (neck), who continues to rest and recover at a Detroit-area hospital. |
| DET | Brian Branch | S | Questionable | Concussion · Branch (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Cade Mays | C | Questionable | Ankle · Mays sustained a low ankle sprain during Detroit's win over the Vikings on Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports. |
| DET | D.J. Reed | CB | Questionable | Hip · Reed (hip) is not expected to practice Wednesday, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| DET | DJ Wonnum | LB | Questionable | Concussion · Wonnum (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Jacob Saylors | RB | Questionable | Neck · Saylors (neck) is not expected to practice Wednesday, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.