Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 12, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium · Sunday, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors
New York Jets2–6 · Elo 1380 · Geno Smith (+22 Elo)
Miami Dolphins
1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo) · Home
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NYJMIA
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | NYJ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 65% | 65% | 35% | MIA 1369 vs NYJ 1380, implied spread MIA −4.2 |
| The blend | MIA 65% | 65% | 35% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
No market line yet.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, NYJ 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo). NYJ: Geno Smith (+22 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Breece Hall | RB | Out | Quadriceps · Hall (quadriceps) is considered "good to go" and is expected to return to action in next Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| NYJ | David Bailey | LB | Out | Groin · out |
| NYJ | Joseph Ossai | DE | Out | Ankle · out |
| NYJ | Max Mitchell | OT | Out | Concussion · out |
| MIA | Kadyn Proctor | OT | Out | Concussion · out |
| MIA | Malik Herring | DE | Questionable | Undisclosed · Herring (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against New England. |
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.