New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 5 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 12, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 29, 6:00 PM · outdoors
New York Jets1–0 · Elo 1444 · Geno Smith (+22)
Miami Dolphins
0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+90) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | NYJ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 66% | 66% | 34% | MIA 1440 vs NYJ 1444, implied spread MIA −4.5 |
| Closing spread | MIA 54% | 54% | 46% | MIA -1.5 |
| The blend | MIA 57% | 57% | 43% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Miami Dolphins over the Jets: Elo 66%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, NYJ 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIA +90 (Malik Willis), NYJ +22 (Geno Smith). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.