Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Game data updated just now · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 13, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 6, 6:00 PM · outdoors
Cincinnati Bengals1–0 · Elo 1505 · Joe Burrow (+17)
Cleveland Browns
0–1 · Elo 1423 · Deshaun Watson (+34) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CLE | CIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CIN 52% | 48% | 52% | CLE 1423 vs CIN 1505, implied spread CLE +0.6 |
| Closing spread | CIN 63% | 37% | 63% | CLE +4.5 |
| The blend | CIN 60% | 40% | 60% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Browns: Elo 52%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: CLE 7 days, CIN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: CLE +34 (Deshaun Watson), CIN +17 (Joe Burrow). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.