Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Game data updated just now · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 13, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Sunday, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Detroit Lions5–2 · Elo 1569 · Jared Goff · off a bye
Atlanta Falcons
3–5 · Elo 1457 · Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo) · Home
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DETATL
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | DET | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 59% | 41% | 59% | ATL 1457 vs DET 1569, implied spread ATL +2.4 |
| The blend | DET 59% | 41% | 59% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
No market line yet.
Details
- Rest: ATL 7 days, DET 10 days. DET off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo). DET: Jared Goff (0 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Jimmy Rolder | LB | Out | Hamstring · Rolder will miss the remainder of the season due to a hamstring injury, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| DET | Kerby Joseph | S | Out | Knee · Joseph (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Jack Campbell | LB | Doubtful | Neck · The Lions announced Monday that "preliminary indications are positive" for Campbell (neck), who continues to rest and recover at a Detroit-area hospital. |
| DET | Brian Branch | S | Questionable | Concussion · Branch (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Cade Mays | C | Questionable | Ankle · Mays sustained a low ankle sprain during Detroit's win over the Vikings on Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports. |
| DET | D.J. Reed | CB | Questionable | Hip · Reed (hip) is not expected to practice Wednesday, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| DET | DJ Wonnum | LB | Questionable | Concussion · Wonnum (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Jacob Saylors | RB | Questionable | Neck · Saylors (neck) is not expected to practice Wednesday, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| ATL | Anterio Thompson | DT | Out | Undisclosed · Thompson posted on social media this week that he was diagnosed with a genetic mutation on his spinal cord in early May and indicated that he was told he will "never play football again," Josh Kendall of The Athletic reports. |
| ATL | Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | Out | Hamstring · out |
| ATL | Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Out | Hamstring · out |
| ATL | Divine Deablo | LB | Out | Forearm · out |
| ATL | Samson Ebukam | DE | Out | Hamstring · Ebukam (hamstring) has been ruled out for Atlanta's Week 9 matchup versus the Bengals, William McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| ATL | Zachariah Branch | WR | Out | Hamstring · Coach Kevin Stefanski noted Monday that Branch (hamstring) won't play Sunday against the Bengals, William McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. |
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.