Can you beat The System?
Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System, our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work.
- Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.
- Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
- Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.
Week 3
Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.
Thursday, Sep 24
ATLFalcons35–14
PackersGB
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 4 mph, 62°F
—
Elo 34%
Spread 37%
Books 31% · Kalshi 31% · Poly 31%
Penix (+28 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 66%
Spread 63%
Books 69% · Kalshi 69% · Poly 69%
Love
Final: ATL 35, GB 14. Elo moved ATL 1419 → 1463, GB 1515 → 1472.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -24.0 · Elo -18.6
Read the post-game report →Sunday, Sep 27
NYJJets24–31
LionsDET
AwayFinal
—
Elo 31%
Spread 30%
Books 27% · Kalshi 27% · Poly 27% · Crowd 27%
Smith (+22 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 69%
Spread 70%
Books 73% · Kalshi 74% · Poly 74% · Crowd 74%
off bye · Goff
Final: DET 31, NYJ 24. Elo moved DET 1519 → 1531, NYJ 1430 → 1418.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +17.2 · Elo +15.4
Read the post-game report →
HOUTexans17–19
ColtsIND
AwayFinal
—
Elo 52%
Spread 54%
Books 53% · Kalshi 53% · Poly 53% · Crowd 52%
Stroud
no pick
—
Elo 48%
Spread 46%
Books 47% · Kalshi 47% · Poly 48% · Crowd 48%
Jones
Final: IND 19, HOU 17. Elo moved IND 1464 → 1476, HOU 1521 → 1510.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -3.1 · Elo -2.0
Read the post-game report →
KCChiefs24–10
DolphinsMIA
AwayFinal
wind 4 mph, 83°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 52%
Spread 77%
Books 83% · Kalshi 85% · Poly 85% · Crowd 66%
Mahomes (+46 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 48%
Spread 23%
Books 17% · Kalshi 16% · Poly 16% · Crowd 34%
Willis (+90 Elo)
Final: KC 24, MIA 10. Elo moved KC 1526 → 1552, MIA 1421 → 1395.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +17.7 · Elo +2.0
Read the post-game report →
TENTitans7–12
GiantsNYG
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 16 mph (matters), 61°F
—
Elo 41%
Spread 43%
Books 45% · Kalshi 44% · Poly 44% · Crowd 39%
Ward (+19 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 59%
Spread 57%
Books 55% · Kalshi 56% · Poly 56% · Crowd 61%
Winston (−71 Elo)
Final: NYG 12, TEN 7. Elo moved NYG 1457 → 1471, TEN 1354 → 1340.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +6.5 · Elo +8.2
Read the post-game report →
CINBengals27–30
SteelersPIT
AwayFinal
wind 13 mph, 70°F
—
Elo 50%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 61% · Poly 61% · Crowd 55%
Burrow (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 50%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 40% · Poly 40% · Crowd 45%
Rodgers
Final: PIT 30, CIN 27. Elo moved PIT 1507 → 1521, CIN 1540 → 1526.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -8.6 · Elo +0.0
Read the post-game report →
SEASeahawks31–33
CommandersWSH
AwayFinal
wind 11 mph, 60°F
—
Elo 71%
Spread 74%
Books 77% · Kalshi 78% · Poly 78% · Crowd 58%
Lock (−30 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 29%
Spread 26%
Books 23% · Kalshi 23% · Poly 23% · Crowd 42%
Daniels (+15 Elo)
Final: WSH 33, SEA 31. Elo moved WSH 1441 → 1457, SEA 1655 → 1640.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -32.8 · Elo -25.4
Read the post-game report →
NEPatriots6–35
JaguarsJAX
AwayFinal
wind 8 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 47%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 41% · Crowd 32%
Maye
no pick
—
Elo 53%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 60% · Poly 60% · Crowd 68%
Lawrence
Final: JAX 35, NE 6. Elo moved JAX 1552 → 1584, NE 1583 → 1551.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +6.5 · Elo +2.9
Read the post-game report →
LACChargers16–24
BillsBUF
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 14 mph, 69°F
—
Elo 23%
Spread 30%
Books 26% · Kalshi 25% · Poly 25% · Crowd 21%
Herbert (+18 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 77%
Spread 70%
Books 74% · Kalshi 76% · Poly 76% · Crowd 79%
off bye · Allen
Final: BUF 24, LAC 16. Elo moved BUF 1612 → 1621, LAC 1451 → 1441.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +20.2 · Elo +19.7
Read the post-game report →
CARPanthers18–21
BrownsCLE
AwayFinal
wind 13 mph, 68°F
—
Elo 44%
Spread 57%
Books 55% · Kalshi 54% · Poly 53% · Crowd 54%
Young
no pick
—
Elo 56%
Spread 43%
Books 45% · Kalshi 46% · Poly 47% · Crowd 46%
Watson (+34 Elo)
Final: CLE 21, CAR 18. Elo moved CLE 1442 → 1454, CAR 1476 → 1464.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -2.0 · Elo +5.6
Read the post-game report →
ARICardinals30–36
49ersSF
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
wind 5 mph, 68°F
—
Elo 22%
Spread 29%
Books 24% · Kalshi 22% · Poly 22% · Crowd 19%
Brissett (−40 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 78%
Spread 71%
Books 76% · Kalshi 78% · Poly 78% · Crowd 81%
Purdy
Final: SF 36, ARI 30. Elo moved SF 1603 → 1611, ARI 1469 → 1461.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +21.4 · Elo +20.2
Read the post-game report →
MINVikings23–16
BuccaneersTB
AwayFinal
wind 7 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 74%
Spread 54%
Books 51% · Kalshi 52% · Poly 52% · Crowd 57%
Murray (+100 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 26%
Spread 46%
Books 49% · Kalshi 49% · Poly 49% · Crowd 43%
Mayfield
Final: MIN 23, TB 16. Elo moved MIN 1575 → 1585, TB 1447 → 1437.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +5.6 · Elo +18.2
Read the post-game report →
LVRaiders35–27
SaintsNO
AwayFinal
—
Elo 48%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 36% · Poly 36% · Crowd 41%
Cousins (+70 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 52%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 65% · Poly 65% · Crowd 59%
Shough (−16 Elo)
Final: LV 35, NO 27. Elo moved LV 1450 → 1474, NO 1504 → 1481.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -12.2 · Elo -2.0
Read the post-game report →
BALRavens34–31
CowboysDAL
Neutral siteFinal
wind 7 mph, 72°F
—
Elo 57%
Spread 59%
Books 61% · Kalshi 62% · Poly 63% · Crowd 55%
Jackson (+13 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 43%
Spread 41%
Books 39% · Kalshi 39% · Poly 38% · Crowd 45%
Prescott (+17 Elo)
Final: BAL 34, DAL 31. Elo moved BAL 1527 → 1538, DAL 1475 → 1463.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +9.8 · Elo +6.5
Read the post-game report →
LARRams26–30
BroncosDEN
AwayFinal
wind 10 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 43%
Spread 46%
Books 54% · Kalshi 50% · Poly 50% · Crowd 52%
Stafford
no pick
—
Elo 57%
Spread 54%
Books 46% · Kalshi 51% · Poly 51% · Crowd 48%
Nix
Final: DEN 30, LAR 26. Elo moved DEN 1567 → 1580, LAR 1562 → 1549.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +1.0 · Elo +6.5
Read the post-game report →Monday, Sep 28
PHIEagles7–27
BearsCHI
AwayFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 5 mph, 63°F
—
Elo 61%
Spread 60%
Books 64% · Kalshi 64% · Poly 64% · Crowd 66%
Hurts (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 39%
Spread 40%
Books 36% · Kalshi 37% · Poly 37% · Crowd 34%
Keenum (−100 Elo)
Final: CHI 27, PHI 7. Elo moved CHI 1537 → 1576, PHI 1549 → 1510.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -17.2 · Elo -12.2
Read the post-game report →