Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Final, recorded Sun 4:29 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:40 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Northwest Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 11 mph, 60°F
Seattle Seahawks4–3 · Elo 1643 · Drew Lock (−30 Elo)
31–33
Washington Commanders
2–4–1 · Elo 1443 · Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo) · Home
Final: SEA 31, WSH 33. Elo moved WSH 1441 → 1457 and SEA 1655 → 1640.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | WSH | SEA | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 71% | 29% | 71% | -25.4 | WSH 1441 vs SEA 1655, implied spread WSH +4.8 |
| Closing spread | SEA 74% | 26% | 74% | -29.8 | WSH +8.5 |
| Sportsbooks | SEA 77% | 23% | 77% | -34.3 | |
| Kalshi | SEA 78% | 23% | 78% | -34.3 | |
| Polymarket | SEA 78% | 23% | 78% | -34.3 | |
| The blend | SEA 76% | 24% | 76% | -32.8 | |
| The crowd (4) | SEA 58% | 42% | 58% | -8.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | SEA 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Seattle Seahawks over the Commanders: Elo 71%, market 77%. Clear favorite, take the average. Lock is costing 30 Elo.
Details
- Importance 35 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 47.
- Rest: WSH 7 days, SEA 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. WSH: Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo). SEA: Drew Lock (-30 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 11 mph, 60°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread WSH +8.5, total 40. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $508k traded, $479k open · Polymarket: $500k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Commanders 33, Seahawks 31: the upset. Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders, Week 3. The Commanders won 33 to 31 as a 77% underdog by the market; the game turned on S.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medran. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Commanders at 23%, Elo at 29%, The System at 24%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (-8.6).
- Elo: Commanders 29%, -25.4
- The market: Commanders 23%, -34.3
- The System: Commanders 24%, -32.8
- The crowd: Commanders 42%, -8.6
- The bot crowd: Commanders 25%, -31.2
How it happened
The swing: S.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way. in the fourth quarter at 3:57, which moved the home side's chances from 63% to 97%.
- Largest lead: Commanders by 14. Lead changes: 0.
- Commanders's live win probability ranged from 21% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 4:34: Drew Stevens 36 Yd Field Goal (SEA 24, WSH 27)
- Q4 3:57: Kain Medrano 50 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens PAT Failed) (SEA 24, WSH 33)
- Q4 2:51: Cooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick) (SEA 31, WSH 33)
The box score
The Seahawks outgained the Commanders (437 to 258 yards) and lost on turnovers (3 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: SEA 437, WSH 258
- Yards per play: SEA 6.8, WSH 4.0
- Third downs: SEA 3-9, WSH 3-13
- Turnovers: SEA 3, WSH 0
- Penalties: SEA 8-53, WSH 9-57
- Possession: SEA 28:32, WSH 31:28
- Red zone: SEA 4-5, WSH 2-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Commanders +16 to 1457, Seahawks -16 to 1640. The quarterback adjustment going in was WSH +15, SEA -30.
- Sam Darnold (SEA): 31/45, 379 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT, QBR 105.7
- Marcus Mariota (WSH): 19/31, 183 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 110
- Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH), 19 CAR, 36 YDS
- Receiving: Terry McLaurin (WSH), 6 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Jadarian Price (SEA), 5 CAR, 15 YDS
- Receiving: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), 10 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -19.5 and 1 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged -31.8 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Commanders 100%, +25.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 9:25 AM ET. The consensus has moved away from WSH by 23 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (WSH) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 45% | 23% | -22 | 41 |
| Kalshi | 47% | 23% | -24 | 32 |
| Sportsbooks | 46% | 23% | -23 | 23 |
Consensus over time