Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
← Back to Week 6 picks · Back to Week 6 predictions
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Final, recorded Sun 11:49 PM ET · markets priced Sun 8:00 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · Lambeau Field · Sunday, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET · outdoors · wind 11 mph, 54°F
Dallas Cowboys3–5 · Elo 1443 · Dak Prescott (+17 Elo) · off a bye
13–23
Green Bay Packers
5–3 · Elo 1533 · Jordan Love · Home
Final: DAL 13, GB 23. Elo moved GB 1509 → 1528 and DAL 1445 → 1427.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | GB | DAL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | GB 60% | 60% | 40% | +9.0 | GB 1509 vs DAL 1445, implied spread GB −2.8 |
| Closing spread | DAL 54% | 46% | 54% | -4.2 | GB +1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | DAL 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | |
| Kalshi | DAL 51% | 50% | 51% | +0.0 | |
| Polymarket | DAL 52% | 49% | 52% | -1.0 | |
| The blend | GB 52% | 52% | 48% | +2.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Green Bay Packers over the Cowboys: Elo 60%, market 49%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; DAL off a bye.
Details
- Importance 51 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 26.
- Rest: GB 7 days, DAL 10 days. DAL off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. GB: Jordan Love (+0 Elo). DAL: Dak Prescott (+17 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 11 mph, 54°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread GB 0, total 54. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $4.5M traded, $4.3M open · Polymarket: $733k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Packers 23, Cowboys 13. Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Week 6. The Packers won 23 to 13; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by E.Williams at GB. Attendance 77,383. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Packers at 49%, Elo at 60%, The System at 52%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+9.0).
- Elo: Packers 60%, +9.0
- The market: Packers 49%, -1.0
- The System: Packers 52%, +2.0
- The bot crowd: Packers 53%, +2.9
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by E.Williams at GB 3. E.Williams to GB 20 for 17 yards (J.Ferguson). in the second quarter at 14:23, which moved the home side's chances from 59% to 69%.
- Largest lead: Packers by 17. Lead changes: 0.
- Packers's live win probability ranged from 43% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 5:02: Trey Smack 44 Yd Field Goal (DAL 7, GB 20)
- Q4 10:06: Trey Smack 29 Yd Field Goal (DAL 7, GB 23)
- Q4 0:44: Ryan Flournoy 6 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (DAL 13, GB 23)
The box score
The Packers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: DAL 303, GB 318
- Yards per play: DAL 4.3, GB 4.5
- Third downs: DAL 5-13, GB 11-18
- Turnovers: DAL 2, GB 1
- Penalties: DAL 11-108, GB 11-96
- Possession: DAL 29:09, GB 30:51
- Red zone: DAL 2-4, GB 2-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Packers +19 to 1528, Cowboys -19 to 1427. The quarterback adjustment going in was GB +0, DAL +17.
- Dak Prescott (DAL): 34/54, 258 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 65.2
- Jordan Love (GB): 23/41, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 74.8
- Rushing: Pierre Strong Jr. (GB), 11 CAR, 28 YDS
- Receiving: Matthew Golden (GB), 6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Javonte Williams (DAL), 11 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: George Pickens (DAL), 6 REC, 73 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -2.5 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +2.5 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Packers 56%, +5.6.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 10, 8 PM ET; last change Sun 7:25 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward GB by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (GB) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47% | 50% | +3 | 51 |
| Polymarket | 47% | 49% | +2 | 24 |
| Sportsbooks | 51% | 50% | -1 | 18 |
Consensus over time