Predictions · Week 6
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at DEN | SEA 55% ✗ | 49% | 43% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 45% | — | — | 42 | Everything else | SEA 14, DEN 17 |
| HOU at JAX | JAX 58% ✗ | 64% | 57% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 58% | 58% | — | — | 35 | Everything else | HOU 34, JAX 31 |
| CHI at ATL Bold call of the week | CHI 52% ✓ | 47% | 46% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% | — | — | 47 | Coin flips | CHI 31, ATL 23 |
| NYJ at NE | NE 79% ✓ | 76% | 71% | 75% | 76% | 76% | 77% | 79% | — | — | 47 | Tight agreement | NYJ 19, NE 26 |
| NO at NYG | NYG 51% ✗ | 57% | 46% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 51% | — | — | 43 | Everything else | NO 34, NYG 27 |
| BAL at CLE | BAL 59% ✗ | 46% | 41% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 41% | 41% | — | — | 40 | Everything else | BAL 10, CLE 13 |
| CAR at PHI | CAR 57% ✓ | 48% | 41% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 43% | 43% | — | — | 52 | Everything else | CAR 25, PHI 14 |
| PIT at TB | PIT 57% ✓ | 38% | 43% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% | — | — | 39 | Everything else | PIT 26, TB 19 |
| TEN at IND | IND 76% ✗ | 76% | 69% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 76% | 76% | — | — | 31 | Tight agreement | TEN 26, IND 20 |
| ARI at LAR Lock of the week | LAR 86% ✗ | 79% | 82% | 86% | 87% | 87% | 84% | 86% | — | — | 37 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | ARI 18, LAR 16 |
| LAC at KC | KC 81% ✓ | 81% | 71% | 78% | 79% | 79% | 81% | 81% | — | — | 32 | Tight agreement | LAC 6, KC 22 |
| BUF at LV | BUF 65% ✓ | 42% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 32% | 35% | 35% | — | — | 46 | Big disagreement | BUF 33, LV 30 |
| DAL at GB | GB 52% ✓ | 60% | 46% | 50% | 50% | 49% | 52% | 52% | — | — | 51 | Big disagreement | DAL 13, GB 23 |
| WSH at SF | SF 78% ✓ | 81% | 71% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 78% | 78% | — | — | 35 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | WSH 17, SF 23 |
| Points this week | -5.0 | -8.3 | -12.5 | -16.0 | -17.5 | -11.9 | -14.4 | — | — | on 14 decided games | |||
| Right | 8/14 | 8/14 | 8/14 | 8/14 | 8/14 | 8/14 | 8/14 | — | — | ||||
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 3 games · favorite 2 for 3 so far
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
Big disagreement 2 games · favorite 2 for 2 so far
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time.
Coin flips 1 game · favorite 1 for 1 so far
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 2 games · favorite 1 for 2 so far
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 6 games · favorite 2 for 6 so far
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
14–17
SEA over DEN ✗
Elo 51% · Mkt 57% · Blend 55%
SEA at DEN · Final
34–31
JAX over HOU ✗
Elo 64% · Mkt 56% · Blend 58%
HOU at JAX · Final
34–27
NYG over NO ✗
Elo 57% · Mkt 50% · Blend 51%
NO at NYG · Final
10–13
BAL over CLE ✗
Elo 54% · Mkt 61% · Blend 59%
BAL at CLE · Final
25–14
CAR over PHI ✓
Elo 52% · Mkt 59% · Blend 57%
CAR at PHI · Final
26–19
PIT over TB ✓
Elo 62% · Mkt 56% · Blend 57%
PIT at TB · Final
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |