Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final, recorded Sun 4:46 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:56 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 11 mph, 74°F
Pittsburgh Steelers6–2 · Elo 1578 · Aaron Rodgers
26–19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3–5 · Elo 1523 · Jalon Daniels (−100 Elo) · off a bye · Home
Final: PIT 26, TB 19. Elo moved TB 1466 → 1451 and PIT 1527 → 1542.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TB | PIT | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PIT 62% | 38% | 62% | +10.6 | TB 1466 vs PIT 1527, implied spread TB +3.4 |
| Closing spread | PIT 57% | 43% | 57% | +6.5 | TB +2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | PIT 56% | 44% | 56% | +5.6 | |
| Kalshi | PIT 55% | 45% | 55% | +4.8 | |
| Polymarket | PIT 55% | 45% | 55% | +4.8 | |
| The blend | PIT 57% | 43% | 57% | +6.5 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Buccaneers: Elo 62%, market 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Daniels is costing 100 Elo; TB off a bye.
Details
- Importance 39 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 32.
- Rest: TB 10 days, PIT 7 days. TB off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. TB: Jalon Daniels (-100 Elo). PIT: Aaron Rodgers (-2 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 11 mph, 74°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread TB +2.5, total 39. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $290k traded, $282k open · Polymarket: $212k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19. Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6. The Steelers won 26 to 19; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by J.Dean at TB 43.. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Steelers at 56%, Elo at 62%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+10.6).
- Elo: Steelers 62%, +10.6
- The market: Steelers 56%, +5.6
- The System: Steelers 57%, +6.5
- The bot crowd: Steelers 57%, +6.5
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by J.Dean at TB 43. J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (J.Daniels). in the fourth quarter at 1:46, which moved the home side's chances from 53% to 12%.
- Largest lead: Buccaneers by 13. Lead changes: 1.
- Steelers's live win probability ranged from 9% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 1:21: Chris Boswell 20 Yd Field Goal (PIT 19, TB 16)
- Q4 0:08: Chase McLaughlin 53 Yd Field Goal (PIT 19, TB 19)
- Q5 3:15: Germie Bernard 6 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick) (PIT 26, TB 19)
The box score
The Steelers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: PIT 300, TB 224
- Yards per play: PIT 3.9, TB 3.1
- Third downs: PIT 5-15, TB 6-19
- Turnovers: PIT 1, TB 2
- Penalties: PIT 5-62, TB 4-38
- Possession: PIT 38:36, TB 31:24
- Red zone: PIT 2-4, TB 1-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Buccaneers -15 to 1451, Steelers +15 to 1542. The quarterback adjustment going in was TB -100, PIT -2.
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT): 33/49, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 84.8
- Jalon Daniels (TB): 22/43, 164 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 49
- Rushing: Bucky Irving (TB), 19 CAR, 46 YDS
- Receiving: Emeka Egbuka (TB), 7 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Jaylen Warren (PIT), 14 CAR, 50 YDS
- Receiving: DK Metcalf (PIT), 11 REC, 93 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +5.7 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +6.2 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Steelers 58%, +7.4.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 10, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:56 PM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (TB) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 45% | 45% | -1 | 40 |
| Polymarket | 44% | 45% | +1 | 26 |
| Sportsbooks | 43% | 44% | — | 16 |
Consensus over time