Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Final, recorded Thu 11:34 PM ET · markets priced Thu 8:13 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Thursday, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET · outdoors · wind 6 mph, 53°F
Seattle Seahawks4–3 · Elo 1643 · Drew Lock (−30 Elo)
14–17
Denver Broncos
6–2 · Elo 1617 · Bo Nix · Home
Final: SEA 14, DEN 17. Elo moved DEN 1578 → 1591 and SEA 1633 → 1620.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | SEA | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 51% | 49% | 51% | -1.0 | DEN 1578 vs SEA 1633, implied spread DEN −0.9 |
| Closing spread | SEA 57% | 43% | 57% | -7.5 | DEN +2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | SEA 57% | 43% | 57% | -7.5 | |
| Kalshi | SEA 56% | 44% | 56% | -6.4 | |
| Polymarket | SEA 56% | 44% | 56% | -6.4 | |
| The blend | SEA 55% | 45% | 55% | -5.2 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Seattle Seahawks over the Broncos: Elo 51%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Lock is costing 30 Elo.
Details
- Importance 42 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 68.
- Rest: DEN 4 days, SEA 4 days.
- Quarterbacks. DEN: Bo Nix (-1 Elo). SEA: Drew Lock (-30 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 6 mph, 53°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread DEN +2.5, total 40.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $3.8M traded, $3.5M open · Polymarket: $927k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Broncos 17, Seahawks 14. Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos, Week 6. The Broncos won 17 to 14; the game turned on (No Huddle) S.Darnold pass short left intended for T.Horton INTERCEPTED by K.Abrams-Draine. Attendance 76,973. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Broncos at 43%, Elo at 49%, The System at 45%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-1.0).
- Elo: Broncos 49%, -1.0
- The market: Broncos 43%, -7.5
- The System: Broncos 45%, -5.2
- The bot crowd: Broncos 45%, -5.2
How it happened
The swing: (No Huddle) S.Darnold pass short left intended for T.Horton INTERCEPTED by K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (T.Horton). in the fourth quarter at 1:31, which moved the home side's chances from 53% to 91%.
- Largest lead: Broncos by 11. Lead changes: 1.
- Broncos's live win probability ranged from 38% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 5:41: George Holani 1 Yd Rush (Sam Darnold Pass to Rashid Shaheed for Two-Point Conversion) (SEA 11, DEN 14)
- Q4 0:03: Jason Myers 34 Yd Field Goal (SEA 14, DEN 14)
- Q5 4:53: Wil Lutz 53 Yd Field Goal (SEA 14, DEN 17)
The box score
The Seahawks outgained the Broncos (353 to 168 yards) and lost on turnovers (3 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: SEA 353, DEN 168
- Yards per play: SEA 4.3, DEN 2.9
- Third downs: SEA 7-17, DEN 3-14
- Turnovers: SEA 3, DEN 0
- Penalties: SEA 7-75, DEN 8-42
- Possession: SEA 35:38, DEN 29:29
- Red zone: SEA 1-2, DEN 2-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Broncos +13 to 1591, Seahawks -13 to 1620. The quarterback adjustment going in was DEN -1, SEA -30.
- Sam Darnold (SEA): 27/51, 278 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 52.6
- Bo Nix (DEN): 17/27, 107 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 71.1
- Rushing: J.K. Dobbins (DEN), 17 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: RJ Harvey (DEN), 3 REC, 31 YDS
- Rushing: Emanuel Wilson (SEA), 14 CAR, 52 YDS
- Receiving: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), 12 REC, 134 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -8.1 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -5.2 and 1 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Broncos 50%, +0.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Wed, Oct 7, 8 PM ET; last change Thu 4:28 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from DEN by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DEN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% | 44% | -1 | 35 |
| Kalshi | 45% | 44% | -2 | 35 |
| Sportsbooks | 45% | 43% | -2 | 19 |
Consensus over time