Jaguars at Ravens $198k, Raiders at 49ers $58k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
← Back to Week 8 picks · Back to Week 8 predictions
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
Final, recorded Sun 4:10 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:57 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 3 mph, 61°F
Las Vegas Raiders4–4 · Elo 1414 · Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo)
38–33
New York Jets
2–6 · Elo 1380 · Geno Smith (+22 Elo) · Home
Final: LV 38, NYJ 33. Elo moved NYJ 1398 → 1380 and LV 1396 → 1414.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | LV | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NYJ 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | NYJ 1398 vs LV 1396, implied spread NYJ −0.1 |
| Closing spread | NYJ 54% | 54% | 46% | -4.2 | NYJ -1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NYJ 54% | 54% | 46% | -4.2 | |
| Kalshi | NYJ 55% | 55% | 45% | -5.2 | |
| Polymarket | NYJ 54% | 54% | 47% | -4.2 | |
| The blend | NYJ 53% | 53% | 47% | -3.1 | |
| The crowd (3) | LV 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | |
| The sharp crowd | LV 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
New York Jets over the Raiders: Elo 50%, market 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Importance 39 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 0.
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, LV 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. NYJ: Geno Smith (+22 Elo). LV: Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 3 mph, 61°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread NYJ -1.5, total 46.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $2.3M traded, $2.3M open · Polymarket: $596k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Raiders 38, Jets 33: back and forth. Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets, Week 8. The Raiders won 38 to 33; the game turned on A.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extr. Attendance 70,080. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Raiders at 46%, Elo at 50%, The System at 47%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+0.0).
- Elo: Raiders 50%, +0.0
- The market: Raiders 46%, -4.2
- The System: Raiders 47%, -3.1
- The crowd: Raiders 50%, +0.0
- The bot crowd: Raiders 47%, -3.1
How it happened
The swing: A.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole. in the second quarter at 10:44, which moved the home side's chances from 64% to 47%.
- Largest lead: Jets by 9. Lead changes: 5.
- Raiders's live win probability ranged from 20% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 11:33: Jalen Nailor 2 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick) (LV 35, NYJ 30)
- Q4 4:31: Jason Sanders 31 Yd Field Goal (LV 35, NYJ 33)
- Q4 0:27: Matt Gay 53 Yd Field Goal (LV 38, NYJ 33)
The box score
The Jets outgained the Raiders (439 to 333 yards) and lost on turnovers (1 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: LV 333, NYJ 439
- Yards per play: LV 5.6, NYJ 7.2
- Third downs: LV 7-11, NYJ 4-11
- Turnovers: LV 0, NYJ 1
- Penalties: LV 5-37, NYJ 6-32
- Possession: LV 29:58, NYJ 30:02
- Red zone: LV 4-4, NYJ 2-6
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Jets -18 to 1380, Raiders +18 to 1414. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYJ +22, LV +70.
- Kirk Cousins (LV): 19/26, 247 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 141
- Geno Smith (NYJ): 20/32, 290 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 99.7
- Rushing: Braelon Allen (NYJ), 21 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Adonai Mitchell (NYJ), 7 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Mike Washington Jr. (LV), 25 CAR, 83 YDS
- Receiving: Brock Bowers (LV), 7 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +0.3 and 1 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -3.4 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Kalm, Raiders 51%, +1.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 37 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Lions at Dolphins, 6 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets, Week 8. The Raiders won 38 to 33; the game turned on A.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extr. Attendance 70,080. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 24, 2 PM ET; last change Sun 11:20 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward NYJ by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NYJ) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 50% | 54% | +4 | 34 |
| Kalshi | 51% | 55% | +4 | 29 |
| Sportsbooks | 51% | 54% | +3 | 20 |
Consensus over time