Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Final, recorded Sun 4:10 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:57 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Ford Field · Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · dome
Minnesota Vikings6–1 · Elo 1584 · Kyler Murray (+100 Elo)
15–19
Detroit Lions
5–2 · Elo 1569 · Jared Goff · Home
Final: MIN 15, DET 19. Elo moved DET 1546 → 1569 and MIN 1606 → 1584.
Bold call of the week. MIN · Elo gives the Minnesota Vikings 66% on the road against the Detroit Lions; the market says 43%. That 24-point gap is the biggest of the week. Murray is worth +100 Elo to the Vikings. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | MIN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 66% | 34% | 66% | -18.6 | DET 1546 vs MIN 1606, implied spread DET +4.5 |
| Closing spread | DET 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | DET -3 |
| Sportsbooks | DET 62% | 62% | 38% | +10.6 | |
| Kalshi | DET 63% | 63% | 38% | +11.3 | |
| Polymarket | DET 63% | 63% | 38% | +11.3 | |
| The blend | DET 55% | 55% | 45% | +4.8 | |
| The crowd (3) | DET 52% | 52% | 48% | +2.0 | |
| The sharp crowd | DET 52% | 52% | 48% | +2.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Detroit Lions over the Vikings: Elo 34%, market 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo.
Details
- Importance 48 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 59.
- Rest: DET 7 days, MIN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. DET: Jared Goff (0 Elo). MIN: Kyler Murray (+100 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread DET -3.5, total 46. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.8M traded, $1.8M open · Polymarket: $82k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Lions 19, Vikings 15: back and forth. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Week 8. The Lions won 19 to 15; the game turned on K.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Lions at 62%, Elo at 34%, The System at 55%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+10.6).
This was the bold (Minnesota Vikings) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Lions 34%, -18.6
- The market: Lions 62%, +10.6
- The System: Lions 55%, +4.8
- The crowd: Lions 52%, +2.0
- The bot crowd: Lions 55%, +4.8
How it happened
The swing: K.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey). in the fourth quarter at 10:16, which moved the home side's chances from 69% to 53%.
- Largest lead: Lions by 5. Lead changes: 4.
- Lions's live win probability ranged from 36% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 4:40: Jahmyr Gibbs 30 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) (MIN 7, DET 12)
- Q4 8:44: T.J. Hockenson 8 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Pass to Jordan Addison for Two-Point Conversion) (MIN 15, DET 12)
- Q4 4:35: Jameson Williams 7 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick) (MIN 15, DET 19)
The box score
The Lions won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: MIN 266, DET 384
- Yards per play: MIN 5.3, DET 5.6
- Third downs: MIN 3-10, DET 5-13
- Turnovers: MIN 1, DET 1
- Penalties: MIN 5-40, DET 7-76
- Possession: MIN 24:17, DET 35:43
- Red zone: MIN 2-2, DET 1-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Lions +22 to 1569, Vikings -22 to 1584. The quarterback adjustment going in was DET +0, MIN +100.
- Kyler Murray (MIN): 17/29, 210 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 89.7
- Jared Goff (DET): 18/25, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 88.1
- Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 23 CAR, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Jameson Williams (DET), 4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Kyler Murray (MIN), 4 CAR, 35 YDS
- Receiving: Jordan Addison (MIN), 3 REC, 66 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +1.6 and 2 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +4.0 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Lions 63%, +11.3.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Week 8. The Lions won 19 to 15; the game turned on K.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 24, 2 PM ET; last change Sun 10:45 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward DET by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DET) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 59% | 63% | +4 | 31 |
| Kalshi | 57% | 63% | +6 | 43 |
| Sportsbooks | 59% | 62% | +3 | 18 |
Consensus over time