Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 1, 6:00 PM · dome
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | MIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 54% | 46% | 54% | DET 1519 vs MIN 1555, implied spread DET +1.2 |
| Closing spread | DET 63% | 63% | 37% | DET -4.5 |
| The blend | DET 59% | 59% | 41% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Detroit Lions over the Vikings: Elo 46%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo.
Details
- Rest: DET 7 days, MIN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: DET 0 (Jared Goff), MIN +43 (Carson Wentz). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.