Jaguars at Ravens $198k, Raiders at 49ers $58k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Final, recorded Sun 7:33 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:20 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium · Sunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET · outdoors · wind 5 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites)
New England Patriots5–3 · Elo 1599 · Drake Maye · off a bye
24–19
Miami Dolphins
1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo) · Home
Final: NE 24, MIA 19. Elo moved MIA 1381 → 1369 and NE 1586 → 1599.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | NE | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 | MIA 1381 vs NE 1586, implied spread MIA +3.7 |
| Closing spread | NE 70% | 30% | 70% | +16.0 | MIA +7 |
| Sportsbooks | NE 75% | 25% | 75% | +18.8 | |
| Kalshi | NE 77% | 24% | 77% | +19.2 | |
| Polymarket | NE 76% | 25% | 76% | +18.8 | |
| The blend | NE 73% | 27% | 73% | +17.7 | |
| The crowd (3) | NE 71% | 29% | 71% | +16.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | NE 71% | 29% | 71% | +16.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
New England Patriots over the Dolphins: Elo 63%, market 76%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; NE off a bye; wind 5 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 35 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 26.
- Rest: MIA 7 days, NE 10 days. NE off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo). NE: Drake Maye (+1 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread MIA +7, total 41.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $656k traded, $630k open · Polymarket: $143k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Patriots 24, Dolphins 19. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Week 8. The Patriots won 24 to 19; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenge. Attendance 59,023. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Patriots at 76%, Elo at 63%, The System at 70%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+19.2).
- Elo: Patriots 63%, +11.3
- The market: Patriots 76%, +19.2
- The System: Patriots 70%, +16.0
- The crowd: Patriots 71%, +16.6
- The bot crowd: Patriots 71%, +16.6
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky. in the third quarter at 9:23, which moved the home side's chances from 55% to 40%.
- Largest lead: Patriots by 11. Lead changes: 2.
- Patriots's live win probability ranged from 36% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 0:59: Drake Maye 2 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick) (NE 17, MIA 13)
- Q4 12:39: DeMario Douglas 48 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick) (NE 24, MIA 13)
- Q4 2:04: Kevin Coleman Jr. 35 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (NE 24, MIA 19)
The box score
The Patriots won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: NE 313, MIA 269
- Yards per play: NE 5.3, MIA 4.5
- Third downs: NE 6-14, MIA 7-14
- Turnovers: NE 1, MIA 1
- Penalties: NE 7-46, MIA 6-50
- Possession: NE 31:57, MIA 28:03
- Red zone: NE 1-2, MIA 1-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Dolphins -13 to 1369, Patriots +13 to 1599. The quarterback adjustment going in was MIA +90, NE +1.
- Drake Maye (NE): 16/20, 199 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 141.5
- Malik Willis (MIA): 21/32, 211 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 92.1
- Rushing: Ollie Gordon II (MIA), 19 CAR, 69 YDS
- Receiving: Kevin Coleman Jr. (MIA), 3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE), 19 CAR, 82 YDS
- Receiving: DeMario Douglas (NE), 3 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +16.6 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +16.6 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Marketeer, Patriots 76%, +19.2.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 37 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Lions at Dolphins, 6 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Week 8. The Patriots won 24 to 19; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenge. Attendance 59,023. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 24, 5 PM ET; last change Sun 10:45 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward MIA by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (MIA) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 21% | 25% | +4 | 27 |
| Kalshi | 21% | 24% | +2 | 38 |
| Sportsbooks | 21% | 25% | +4 | 23 |
Consensus over time