Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Final, recorded 22 h ago · markets priced Sun 8:04 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Northwest Stadium · Sunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET · outdoors · wind 5 mph, 52°F
Philadelphia Eagles2–6 · Elo 1401 · Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo)
10–27
Washington Commanders
2–4–1 · Elo 1443 · Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo) · off a bye · Home
Final: PHI 10, WSH 27. Elo moved WSH 1420 → 1443 and PHI 1424 → 1401.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | WSH | PHI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | WSH 66% | 66% | 34% | +13.4 | WSH 1420 vs PHI 1424, implied spread WSH −2.7 |
| Closing spread | WSH 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 | WSH -6 |
| Sportsbooks | WSH 69% | 69% | 31% | +15.4 | |
| Kalshi | WSH 70% | 70% | 31% | +16.0 | |
| Polymarket | WSH 70% | 70% | 31% | +16.0 | |
| The blend | WSH 70% | 70% | 30% | +16.0 | |
| The crowd (3) | WSH 63% | 63% | 37% | +11.3 | |
| The sharp crowd | WSH 62% | 62% | 38% | +10.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Washington Commanders over the Eagles: Elo 66%, market 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 17 Elo; WSH off a bye.
Details
- Importance 28 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 7.
- Rest: WSH 13 days, PHI 6 days. WSH off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. WSH: Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo). PHI: Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph, 52°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread WSH -6, total 40.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $2.0M traded, $2.0M open · Polymarket: $641k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Commanders 27, Eagles 10. Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Week 8. The Commanders won 27 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.McKee sacked at WAS 44 for -7 yards (D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (D.Armstrong), RECO. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Commanders at 69%, Elo at 66%, The System at 70%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+16.0).
- Elo: Commanders 66%, +13.4
- The market: Commanders 69%, +15.4
- The System: Commanders 70%, +16.0
- The crowd: Commanders 63%, +11.3
- The bot crowd: Commanders 69%, +15.4
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) T.McKee sacked at WAS 44 for -7 yards (D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (D.Armstrong), RECOVERED by WAS-C.Omenihu at WAS 40. in the third quarter at 2:59, which moved the home side's chances from 62% to 75%.
- Largest lead: Commanders by 17. Lead changes: 1.
- Commanders's live win probability ranged from 35% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 1:33: Drew Stevens 25 Yd Field Goal (PHI 10, WSH 16)
- Q4 3:43: Drew Stevens 42 Yd Field Goal (PHI 10, WSH 19)
- Q4 1:52: Rachaad White 1 Yd Rush (Austin Ekeler Run for Two-Point Conversion) (PHI 10, WSH 27)
The box score
The Commanders won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: PHI 268, WSH 339
- Yards per play: PHI 3.9, WSH 5.9
- Third downs: PHI 5-15, WSH 5-13
- Turnovers: PHI 2, WSH 1
- Penalties: PHI 6-30, WSH 9-70
- Possession: PHI 33:31, WSH 26:29
- Red zone: PHI 1-2, WSH 2-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Commanders +23 to 1443, Eagles -23 to 1401. The quarterback adjustment going in was WSH +15, PHI +17.
- Tanner McKee (PHI): 23/34, 212 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 72.2
- Jayden Daniels (WSH): 16/29, 217 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 90.7
- Rushing: Rachaad White (WSH), 11 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Treylon Burks (WSH), 3 REC, 81 YDS
- Rushing: Elijah Mitchell (PHI), 11 CAR, 34 YDS
- Receiving: Makai Lemon (PHI), 6 REC, 57 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +11.1 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +15.4 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Commanders 72%, +17.2.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 37 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Lions at Dolphins, 6 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Week 8. The Commanders won 27 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.McKee sacked at WAS 44 for -7 yards (D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (D.Armstrong), RECO. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 24, 9 PM ET; last change Sun 7:20 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward WSH by 5 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (WSH) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 66% | 70% | +4 | 39 |
| Kalshi | 66% | 70% | +3 | 37 |
| Sportsbooks | 63% | 69% | +6 | 20 |
Consensus over time