Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Game data updated 1 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 8, 6:00 PM · closed
Dallas Cowboys0–1 · Elo 1449 · Dak Prescott (+17)
Indianapolis Colts
0–1 · Elo 1472 · Daniel Jones · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | IND | DAL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | IND 57% | 57% | 43% | IND 1472 vs DAL 1449, implied spread IND −1.9 |
| Closing spread | DAL 54% | 46% | 54% | IND +1.5 |
| The blend | DAL 52% | 48% | 52% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Dallas Cowboys over the Colts: Elo 43%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: IND 7 days, DAL 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: IND -6 (Daniel Jones), DAL +17 (Dak Prescott). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.