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Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Game data updated 2 min ago · markets priced 9 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Dallas Cowboys3–5 · Elo 1443 · Dak Prescott (+17 Elo)
Indianapolis Colts
2–6 · Elo 1434 · Daniel Jones · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | IND | DAL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | IND 52% | 52% | 48% | IND 1434 vs DAL 1443, implied spread IND −0.7 |
| Closing spread | DAL 67% | 33% | 67% | IND +6 |
| Sportsbooks | DAL 69% | 31% | 69% | |
| Kalshi | DAL 70% | 30% | 70% | |
| Polymarket | DAL 71% | 30% | 71% | |
| The blend | DAL 64% | 36% | 64% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Dallas Cowboys over the Colts: Elo 48%, market 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 28 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 13.
- Rest: IND 7 days, DAL 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. IND: Daniel Jones (-6 Elo). DAL: Dak Prescott (+17 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread IND +6, total 51.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $29k traded, $21k open · Polymarket: $1k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Dee Winters | LB | Out | Calf · out |
| DAL | KaVontae Turpin | WR | Out | Ribs · out |
| DAL | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | Out | Groin · out |
| DAL | Caleb Downs | S | Questionable | Concussion · Downs has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Cardinals to be evaluated for a concussion, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. |
| DAL | Jake Ferguson | TE | Questionable | Ankle · Head coach Brian Schottenheimer said Monday that Ferguson (ankle) has a chance to play Sunday at Indianapolis, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. |
| DAL | Malachi Lawrence | LB | Questionable | Ankle · questionable |
| DAL | P.J. Locke | S | Questionable | Concussion · questionable |
| IND | Anthony Gould | WR | Out | Concussion · out |
| IND | Bryce Boettcher | LB | Out | Groin · out |
| IND | Justin Walley | CB | Out | Knee · out |
On the Wire
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 2 PM ET; last change Mon 9:29 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from IND by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (IND) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 33% | 30% | -3 | 26 |
| Kalshi | 32% | 30% | -2 | 40 |
| Sportsbooks | 34% | 31% | -3 | 4 |
Consensus over time