Predictions · Week 9
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX at BAL | JAX 00% | 40% | 26% | 22% | 21% | 21% | 26% | 00% | — | — | 28 | Big disagreement | Thu 8:15 PM ET |
| CIN at ATL | CIN 00% | 36% | 41% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 00% | — | — | 46 | Tight agreement | Sun 9:30 AM ET |
| NYJ at KC | KC 00% | 79% | 76% | 79% | 81% | 81% | 82% | 00% | — | — | 28 | Tight agreement | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| DET at MIA | DET 00% | 41% | 30% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 00% | — | — | 28 | Big disagreement | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| CLE at NO | NO 00% | 53% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 58% | 56% | 00% | — | — | 37 | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| DAL at IND | DAL 00% | 52% | 33% | 31% | 30% | 30% | 36% | 00% | — | — | 28 | Big disagreement | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| NYG at PHI | NYG 00% | 47% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 40% | 00% | — | — | 37 | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| LAR at WSH | LAR 00% | 40% | 34% | 32% | 29% | 30% | 33% | 00% | — | — | 38 | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| DEN at CAR | DEN 00% | 37% | 41% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 40% | 00% | — | — | 33 | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| HOU at LAC | HOU 00% | 41% | 37% | 34% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 00% | — | — | 29 | Everything else | Sun 4:05 PM ET |
| GB at NE | NE 00% | 63% | 59% | 58% | 59% | 60% | 62% | 00% | — | — | 41 | Tight agreement | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| LV at SF | SF 00% | 77% | 77% | 80% | 81% | 81% | 82% | 00% | — | — | 23 | Tight agreement | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| ARI at SEA | SEA 00% | 87% | — | 85% | 84% | 84% | 87% | 00% | — | — | 34 | Tight agreement | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| TB at CHI | CHI 70% | 68% | — | 68% | 69% | 69% | 70% | 70% | — | — | 51 | Tight agreement | Sun 8:20 PM ET |
| BUF at MIN | BUF 00% | 63% | 40% | 38% | 37% | 38% | 44% | 00% | — | — | 29 | Big disagreement | Mon 8:15 PM ET |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |