The Report · data-driven NFL insights, delivered every morning

Can you beat The System?

Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System, our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 9

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

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Create your own systemSet the levers, backtest it on 27 seasons, and fill your picks from it. Needs an account.

Thursday, Nov 5

JAXJaguars
Elo: JAX 60%Market: JAX 79%Spread: JAX 74%
RavensBAL
Away8:15 PM ETHome
wind 4 mph, 70°F
—
Elo 60%
Spread 74%
Books 78% · Kalshi 80% · Poly 80%
Lawrence
no pick yet
—
Elo 40%
Spread 26%
Books 22% · Kalshi 21% · Poly 21%
Huntley (−16 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
JAXBAL
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Sunday, Nov 8

CINBengals
Elo: CIN 64%Market: CIN 60%Spread: CIN 59%
FalconsATL
Neutral site9:30 AM ET
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 1 mph, 51°F
—
Elo 64%
Spread 59%
Books 60% · Kalshi 61% · Poly 61%
Burrow (+17 Elo)
no pick yet
—
Elo 36%
Spread 41%
Books 40% · Kalshi 40% · Poly 40%
Penix (+28 Elo)
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CINATL
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NYJJets
Elo: KC 79%Market: KC 80%Spread: KC 76%
ChiefsKC
Away1:00 PM ETHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
wind 7 mph, 63°F
—
Elo 21%
Spread 24%
Books 21% · Kalshi 19% · Poly 19%
Smith (+22 Elo)
no pick yet
—
Elo 79%
Spread 76%
Books 79% · Kalshi 81% · Poly 81%
Mahomes (+46 Elo)
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NYJKC
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DETLions
Elo: DET 59%Market: DET 75%Spread: DET 70%
DolphinsMIA
Away1:00 PM ETHome
wind 11 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 59%
Spread 70%
Books 74% · Kalshi 76% · Poly 75%
Goff
no pick yet
—
Elo 41%
Spread 30%
Books 26% · Kalshi 25% · Poly 26%
Willis (+90 Elo)
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DETMIA
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CLEBrowns
Elo: NO 53%Market: NO 57%Spread: NO 57%
SaintsNO
Away1:00 PM ETHome
—
Elo 47%
Spread 43%
Books 43% · Kalshi 43% · Poly 42%
Watson (+34 Elo)
no pick yet
—
Elo 53%
Spread 57%
Books 57% · Kalshi 57% · Poly 58%
off bye · Shough (−16 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CLENO
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DALCowboys
Elo: IND 52%Market: DAL 70%Spread: DAL 67%
ColtsIND
Away1:00 PM ETHome
—
Elo 48%
Spread 67%
Books 69% · Kalshi 70% · Poly 71%
Prescott (+17 Elo)
no pick yet
—
Elo 52%
Spread 33%
Books 31% · Kalshi 30% · Poly 30%
Jones
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
DALIND
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NYGGiants
Elo: NYG 53%Market: NYG 62%Spread: NYG 60%
EaglesPHI
Away1:00 PM ETHome
wind 6 mph, 54°F
—
Elo 53%
Spread 60%
Books 60% · Kalshi 63% · Poly 63%
McCarthy (−88 Elo) · off bye
no pick yet
—
Elo 47%
Spread 40%
Books 40% · Kalshi 38% · Poly 37%
McKee (−29 Elo)
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NYGPHI
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LARRams
Elo: LAR 60%Market: LAR 70%Spread: LAR 66%
CommandersWSH
Away1:00 PM ETHome
wind 6 mph, 54°F
—
Elo 60%
Spread 66%
Books 68% · Kalshi 71% · Poly 70%
Stafford
no pick yet
—
Elo 40%
Spread 34%
Books 32% · Kalshi 29% · Poly 30%
Daniels (+15 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
LARWSH
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DENBroncos
Elo: DEN 63%Market: DEN 59%Spread: DEN 59%
PanthersCAR
Away1:00 PM ETHome
wind 5 mph, 61°F
—
Elo 63%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 60% · Poly 59%
Nix
no pick yet
—
Elo 37%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 41%
off bye · Young
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DENCAR
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HOUTexans
Elo: HOU 59%Market: HOU 65%Spread: HOU 63%
ChargersLAC
Away4:05 PM ETHome
—
Elo 59%
Spread 63%
Books 66% · Kalshi 65% · Poly 65%
Stroud · off bye
no pick yet
—
Elo 41%
Spread 37%
Books 34% · Kalshi 36% · Poly 35%
Herbert (+18 Elo)
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HOULAC
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GBPackers
Elo: NE 63%Market: NE 59%Spread: NE 59%
PatriotsNE
Away4:25 PM ETHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 4 pts apart
wind 2 mph, 48°F (cold helps favorites)
—
Elo 37%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 41%
Love · off bye
no pick yet
—
Elo 63%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 60%
Maye
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GBNE
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LVRaiders
Elo: SF 77%Market: SF 81%Spread: SF 77%
49ersSF
Away4:25 PM ETHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 4 pts apart
wind 6 mph, 73°F
—
Elo 23%
Spread 23%
Books 20% · Kalshi 19% · Poly 19%
Cousins (+70 Elo)
no pick yet
—
Elo 77%
Spread 77%
Books 80% · Kalshi 81% · Poly 81%
off bye · Purdy
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
LVSF
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ARICardinals
Elo: SEA 87%Market: SEA 84%
SeahawksSEA
Away4:25 PM ETHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 15 mph (matters), 60°F
—
Elo 13%
Books 15% · Kalshi 16% · Poly 16%
Minshew (−87 Elo)
no pick yet
—
Elo 87%
Books 85% · Kalshi 84% · Poly 85%
Darnold
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ARISEA
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TBBuccaneers
Elo: CHI 68%Market: CHI 68%
BearsCHI
Away8:20 PM ETHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
wind 4 mph, 53°F
—
Elo 32%
Books 32% · Kalshi 32% · Poly 32%
Mayfield
no pick yet
—
Elo 68%
Books 68% · Kalshi 68% · Poly 68%
Williams
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TBCHI
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Monday, Nov 9

BUFBills
Elo: MIN 63%Market: BUF 63%Spread: BUF 60%
VikingsMIN
Away8:15 PM ETHome
—
Elo 37%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 64% · Poly 63%
Allen
no pick yet
—
Elo 63%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 37% · Poly 38%
Murray (+100 Elo)
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BUFMIN
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