Can you beat The System? Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System , our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it ). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work .
Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.Week 9 Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.
Thursday, Nov 5 JAX Jaguars Elo: JAX 60% Market: JAX 79% Spread: JAX 74% Ravens BAL Away 8:15 PM ET Home
wind 4 mph, 70°F
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Elo 60%
Spread 74%
Books 78% · Kalshi 80% · Poly 80%
Lawrence
no pick yet
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Elo 40%
Spread 26%
Books 22% · Kalshi 21% · Poly 21%
Huntley (−16 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
JAX 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 BAL
Use… The System · BAL 26% The blend · BAL 26% The market · BAL 21% Elo · BAL 40% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. Sunday, Nov 8 CIN Bengals Elo: CIN 64% Market: CIN 60% Spread: CIN 59% Falcons ATL Neutral site 9:30 AM ET
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 1 mph, 51°F
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Elo 64%
Spread 59%
Books 60% · Kalshi 61% · Poly 61%
Burrow (+17 Elo)
no pick yet
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Elo 36%
Spread 41%
Books 40% · Kalshi 40% · Poly 40%
Penix (+28 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CIN 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 ATL
Use… The System · ATL 37% The blend · ATL 37% The market · ATL 40% Elo · ATL 36% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. NYJ Jets Elo: KC 79% Market: KC 80% Spread: KC 76% Chiefs KC Away 1:00 PM ET Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
wind 7 mph, 63°F
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Elo 21%
Spread 24%
Books 21% · Kalshi 19% · Poly 19%
Smith (+22 Elo)
no pick yet
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Elo 79%
Spread 76%
Books 79% · Kalshi 81% · Poly 81%
Mahomes (+46 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
NYJ 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 KC
Use… The System · KC 82% The blend · KC 82% The market · KC 80% Elo · KC 79% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. DET Lions Elo: DET 59% Market: DET 75% Spread: DET 70% Dolphins MIA Away 1:00 PM ET Home
wind 11 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites)
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Elo 59%
Spread 70%
Books 74% · Kalshi 76% · Poly 75%
Goff
no pick yet
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Elo 41%
Spread 30%
Books 26% · Kalshi 25% · Poly 26%
Willis (+90 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
DET 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 MIA
Use… The System · MIA 31% The blend · MIA 29% The market · MIA 25% Elo · MIA 41% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. CLE Browns Elo: NO 53% Market: NO 57% Spread: NO 57% Saints NO Away 1:00 PM ET Home
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Elo 47%
Spread 43%
Books 43% · Kalshi 43% · Poly 42%
Watson (+34 Elo)
no pick yet
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Elo 53%
Spread 57%
Books 57% · Kalshi 57% · Poly 58%
off bye · Shough (−16 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CLE 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 NO
Use… The System · NO 56% The blend · NO 56% The market · NO 57% Elo · NO 53% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. DAL Cowboys Elo: IND 52% Market: DAL 70% Spread: DAL 67% Colts IND Away 1:00 PM ET Home
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Elo 48%
Spread 67%
Books 69% · Kalshi 70% · Poly 71%
Prescott (+17 Elo)
no pick yet
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Elo 52%
Spread 33%
Books 31% · Kalshi 30% · Poly 30%
Jones
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
DAL 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 IND
Use… The System · IND 36% The blend · IND 36% The market · IND 30% Elo · IND 52% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. NYG Giants Elo: NYG 53% Market: NYG 62% Spread: NYG 60% Eagles PHI Away 1:00 PM ET Home
wind 6 mph, 54°F
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Elo 53%
Spread 60%
Books 60% · Kalshi 64% · Poly 63%
McCarthy (−88 Elo) · off bye
no pick yet
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Elo 47%
Spread 40%
Books 40% · Kalshi 37% · Poly 37%
McKee (−29 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
NYG 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 PHI
Use… The System · PHI 40% The blend · PHI 40% The market · PHI 38% Elo · PHI 47% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. LAR Rams Elo: LAR 60% Market: LAR 70% Spread: LAR 66% Commanders WSH Away 1:00 PM ET Home
wind 6 mph, 54°F
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Elo 60%
Spread 66%
Books 68% · Kalshi 71% · Poly 70%
Stafford
no pick yet
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Elo 40%
Spread 34%
Books 32% · Kalshi 29% · Poly 30%
Daniels (+15 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
LAR 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 WSH
Use… The System · WSH 33% The blend · WSH 33% The market · WSH 30% Elo · WSH 40% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. DEN Broncos Elo: DEN 63% Market: DEN 59% Spread: DEN 59% Panthers CAR Away 1:00 PM ET Home
wind 5 mph, 61°F
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Elo 63%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 59%
Nix
no pick yet
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Elo 37%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 41%
off bye · Young
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
DEN 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 CAR
Use… The System · CAR 40% The blend · CAR 40% The market · CAR 41% Elo · CAR 37% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. HOU Texans Elo: HOU 59% Market: HOU 65% Spread: HOU 63% Chargers LAC Away 4:05 PM ET Home
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Elo 59%
Spread 63%
Books 66% · Kalshi 65% · Poly 65%
Stroud · off bye
no pick yet
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Elo 41%
Spread 37%
Books 34% · Kalshi 36% · Poly 36%
Herbert (+18 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
HOU 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 LAC
Use… The System · LAC 36% The blend · LAC 36% The market · LAC 35% Elo · LAC 41% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. GB Packers Elo: NE 63% Market: NE 59% Spread: NE 59% Patriots NE Away 4:25 PM ET Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 4 pts apart
wind 2 mph, 48°F (cold helps favorites)
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Elo 37%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 41%
Love · off bye
no pick yet
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Elo 63%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 60%
Maye
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
GB 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 NE
Use… The System · NE 64% The blend · NE 62% The market · NE 59% Elo · NE 63% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. LV Raiders Elo: SF 77% Market: SF 81% Spread: SF 77% 49ers SF Away 4:25 PM ET Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 4 pts apart
wind 6 mph, 73°F
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Elo 23%
Spread 23%
Books 20% · Kalshi 19% · Poly 19%
Cousins (+70 Elo)
no pick yet
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Elo 77%
Spread 77%
Books 80% · Kalshi 81% · Poly 81%
off bye · Purdy
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
LV 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 SF
Use… The System · SF 82% The blend · SF 82% The market · SF 81% Elo · SF 77% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. ARI Cardinals Elo: SEA 87% Market: SEA 84% Seahawks SEA Away 4:25 PM ET Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 15 mph (matters), 60°F
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Elo 13%
Books 15% · Kalshi 17% · Poly 16%
Minshew (−87 Elo)
no pick yet
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Elo 87%
Books 85% · Kalshi 84% · Poly 84%
Darnold
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
ARI 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 SEA
Use… The System · SEA 81% The blend · SEA 87% The market · SEA 84% Elo · SEA 87% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. TB Buccaneers Elo: CHI 68% Market: CHI 68% Bears CHI Away 8:20 PM ET Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
wind 4 mph, 53°F
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Elo 32%
Books 32% · Kalshi 31% · Poly 31%
Mayfield
no pick yet
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Elo 68%
Books 68% · Kalshi 69% · Poly 69%
Williams
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
TB 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 CHI
Use… The System · CHI 70% The blend · CHI 70% The market · CHI 68% Elo · CHI 68% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save. Monday, Nov 9 BUF Bills Elo: MIN 63% Market: BUF 63% Spread: BUF 60% Vikings MIN Away 8:15 PM ET Home
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Elo 37%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 64% · Poly 63%
Allen
no pick yet
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Elo 63%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 37% · Poly 38%
Murray (+100 Elo)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
BUF 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 MIN
Use… The System · MIN 44% The blend · MIN 44% The market · MIN 37% Elo · MIN 63% Create a system… Game page → Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.