Week 5: The System +26.2, the closing line +31.8, Elo +20.9
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Mendo led the players with +53.8. Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers. The market beat The System this week.
Scoring is the game's own: 25 minus the square of the miss over 100, per game. A forecaster that says 70% and is right earns 16; wrong, it loses 24. Over a 16-game week the spread between the best and worst forecaster is usually 20 to 40 points, and it is mostly variance; the season total is what separates them.
Over 27 replayed seasons the closing line averaged 997 points a season, The System 1,011, Elo 892. One week says little; the season scoreboard on the leaderboard is the running answer.
| Pure market (baba) | +35.0 on 14 |
| Sportsbooks | +34.4 on 14 |
| The blend | +33.3 on 14 |
| Polymarket | +31.9 on 14 |
| Closing spread | +31.8 on 14 |
| Kalshi | +31.2 on 14 |
| Maybe (Kalm) | +29.0 on 14 |
| Cautious (baba) | +26.5 on 14 |
| The System | +26.2 on 14 |
| The bot crowd | +24.2 on 14 |
| Elo (the model) | +20.9 on 14 |
| Pure Elo (baba) | +20.9 on 14 |
| Strong (baba) | +15.6 on 14 |
| Bold (baba) | +13.9 on 14 |
| The crowd | +0.0 on 0 |
| The sharp crowd | +0.0 on 0 |
Related
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.