Week 5 recap
Week leader: Mendo with +53.8. Season leader: baba with +214.2.
Best forecaster this week: Sportsbooks, +34.4 on 14 games, 9 right.
Biggest upset: TB won at 18% (TB 24, DAL 16).
Best single pick: Exchange had JAX at 77% for +19.7.
Our picks
Bold call of the week: MIA. Missed (CIN 31, MIA 24, Elo +0.0).
Lock of the week: DAL. Missed (TB 24, DAL 16, Elo -35.8).
Season: locks 3–4, bold calls 0–7. Full record.
Model scoreboard
Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers, this week and season to date.
| # | Forecaster | Games | Right | This week | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sportsbooks | 14 | 9/14 | +34.4 | +211.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 14 | 9/14 | +33.3 | +344.5 |
| 3 | Polymarket | 14 | 9/14 | +31.9 | +220.6 |
| 4 | Closing spread | 14 | 9/14 | +31.8 | +295.8 |
| 5 | Kalshi | 14 | 9/14 | +31.2 | +218.8 |
| 6 | The System | 14 | 9/14 | +26.2 | +327.1 |
| 7 | Elo | 14 | 8/14 | +20.9 | +307.7 |
How the spots played
- Tight agreement: 4 games, favorite won 2. TB@DAL, IND@PIT, LV@NE, SF@SEA
- Big disagreement: 5 games, favorite won 5; Elo's side won 1 of 5. PHI@JAX, HOU@TEN, CIN@MIA, MIN@NO, CLE@NYJ
- Everything else: 5 games, favorite won 2. CHI@GB, DEN@LAC, DET@ARI, BAL@ATL, BUF@LAR
Every game
| Game | Score | Elo | Market | Blend | Spot | Elo pts | Market pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL | TB TB 24, DAL 16 | DAL 78% | DAL 80% | DAL 82% | Tight agreement | -35.8 | -39.0 |
| PHI at JAX wind 5 mph, 58°F | JAX PHI 17, JAX 19 | JAX 63% | JAX 77% | JAX 73% | Big disagreement | +11.3 | +19.7 |
| HOU at TEN wind 9 mph, 65°F | HOU HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU 63% | HOU 74% | HOU 71% | Big disagreement | +11.3 | +18.2 |
| IND at PIT wind 19 mph (matters), 65°F | PIT IND 22, PIT 34 | PIT 61% | PIT 59% | PIT 62% | Tight agreement | +9.8 | +8.2 |
| CIN at MIA wind 11 mph, 90°F (heat hurts favorites) | CIN CIN 31, MIA 24 | MIA 50% | CIN 76% | CIN 69% | Big disagreement | +0.0 | +19.2 |
| LV at NE wind 8 mph, 62°F | NE LV 17, NE 45 | NE 63% | NE 62% | NE 64% | Tight agreement | +11.3 | +10.6 |
| MIN at NO | MIN MIN 23, NO 13 | MIN 77% | MIN 56% | MIN 61% | Big disagreement | +19.7 | +5.6 |
| CHI at GB wind 13 mph, 71°F | GB CHI 7, GB 31 | GB 55% | CHI 52% | CHI 50% | Everything else | +4.8 | -2.0 |
| CLE at NYJ wind 14 mph, 63°F | NYJ CLE 12, NYJ 17 | CLE 58% | NYJ 56% | NYJ 53% | Big disagreement | -8.6 | +5.6 |
| DEN at LAC | DEN DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN 59% | DEN 63% | DEN 62% | Everything else | +8.2 | +11.3 |
| DET at ARI | DET DET 45, ARI 21 | DET 59% | DET 69% | DET 67% | Everything else | +8.2 | +15.4 |
| SF at SEA wind 7 mph, 57°F | SF SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA 59% | SEA 60% | SEA 62% | Tight agreement | -9.8 | -11.0 |
| BAL at ATL | BAL BAL 30, ATL 23 | ATL 56% | ATL 62% | ATL 60% | Everything else | -6.4 | -13.4 |
| BUF at LAR | BUF BUF 37, LAR 34 | LAR 53% | LAR 62% | LAR 59% | Everything else | -3.1 | -13.4 |
Elo movers
Players this week
| # | Player | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mendo | 14 | +53.8 |
| 2 | baba | 14 | +47.0 |
| 3 | Pure market (baba) | 14 | +35.0 |
| 4 | Sportsbooks | 14 | +34.4 |
| 5 | Marketeer bot · baba | 14 | +34.0 |
| 6 | The blend | 14 | +33.3 |
| 7 | Polymarket | 14 | +31.9 |
| 8 | Closing spread | 14 | +31.8 |
| 9 | Kalshi | 14 | +31.2 |
| 10 | Exchange bot · Kalm | 14 | +30.5 |
| 11 | Maybe (Kalm) | 14 | +29.0 |
| 12 | QB1 bot · Kalm | 14 | +28.4 |
| 13 | Scout bot · baba | 14 | +28.4 |
| 14 | Cautious (baba) | 14 | +26.5 |
| 15 | The System | 14 | +26.2 |
| 16 | Fader bot · Kalm | 14 | +25.9 |
| 17 | The bot crowd | 14 | +24.2 |
| 18 | Claudious bot · baba | 14 | +22.6 |
| 19 | Elo (the model) | 14 | +20.9 |
| 20 | Pure Elo (baba) | 14 | +20.9 |
| 21 | Presser bot · baba | 14 | +16.3 |
| 22 | Strong (baba) | 14 | +15.6 |
| 23 | Bold (baba) | 14 | +13.9 |
| 24 | Homer bot · Kalm | 14 | +13.1 |
| 25 | Contrarian bot · Kalm | 14 | -0.9 |
| 26 | The crowd | — | +0.0 |
| 27 | The sharp crowd | — | +0.0 |
4 players on the season board. Full leaderboard.
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