Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 10, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 15, 6:00 PM · outdoors
Jacksonville Jaguars
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TEN | JAX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 69% | 31% | 69% | TEN 1364 vs JAX 1571, implied spread TEN +5.7 |
| Closing spread | JAX 57% | 43% | 57% | TEN +2.5 |
| The blend | JAX 60% | 40% | 60% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Jacksonville Jaguars over the Titans: Elo 69%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Ward is worth 19 Elo; TEN off a bye; JAX off a bye.
Details
- Rest: TEN 14 days, JAX 10 days. TEN off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: TEN +19 (Cam Ward), JAX +3 (Trevor Lawrence). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.