New England Patriots at New York Jets
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 27, 6:00 PM · outdoors
New England Patriots0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye
New York Jets
1–0 · Elo 1444 · Geno Smith (+22) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | NE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 57% | 43% | 57% | NYJ 1444 vs NE 1564, implied spread NYJ +2.0 |
| Closing spread | NE 69% | 31% | 69% | NYJ +6.5 |
| The blend | NE 66% | 34% | 66% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
New England Patriots over the Jets: Elo 57%, market 69%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, NE 6 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: NYJ +22 (Geno Smith), NE +1 (Drake Maye). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.