Predictions · Week 16
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.
| Game | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at PHI | 57% | 57% | — | — | — | 59% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Fri 1:15 AM |
| GB at CHI | 64% | 54% | — | — | — | 57% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Fri 6:00 PM |
| BUF at DEN | 49% | 46% | — | — | — | 46% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Fri 9:30 PM |
| LAR at SEA | 65% | 54% | — | — | — | 57% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sat 1:15 AM |
| CAR at PIT | 69% | 60% | — | — | — | 62% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| TB at ATL | 53% | 46% | — | — | — | 47% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sun 5:00 AM |
| CIN at IND | 49% | 46% | — | — | — | 46% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sun 5:00 AM |
| WSH at MIN | 72% | 57% | — | — | — | 61% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| NE at NYJ | 43% | 31% | — | — | — | 34% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| ARI at NO | 58% | 66% | — | — | — | 64% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 6:00 PM |
| LAC at MIA | 58% | 30% | — | — | — | 37% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| CLE at BAL | 72% | 77% | — | — | — | 76% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| TEN at LV | 71% | 54% | — | — | — | 59% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 9:05 PM |
| SF at KC | 50% | 59% | — | — | — | 57% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 9:25 PM |
| JAX at DAL | 41% | 59% | — | — | — | 54% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Mon 1:20 AM |
| NYG at DET | 64% | 63% | — | — | — | 65% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Tue 1:15 AM |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 2 games
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
Big disagreement 7 games
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time.
CHI over GB
Elo 64% · Mkt 54%
GB at CHI · Fri 6 PM
SEA over LAR
Elo 65% · Mkt 54%
LAR at SEA · Sat 1 AM
MIN over WSH
Elo 72% · Mkt 57%
WSH at MIN · Sun 5 AM
NE over NYJ
Elo 57% · Mkt 69%
NE at NYJ · Sun 6 PM
LAC over MIA
Elo 42% · Mkt 70%
LAC at MIA · Sun 6 PM
LV over TEN
Elo 71% · Mkt 54%
TEN at LV · Sun 9 PM
DAL over JAX
Elo 41% · Mkt 59%
JAX at DAL · Mon 1 AM
Coin flips 3 games
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 2 games
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 2 games
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 17 | +78.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 17 | +77.4 |
| 3 | The System | 17 | +77.4 |
| 4 | Elo (the model) | 17 | +45.3 |