Predictions · Week 16
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at PHI | HOU 00% | 39% | — | — | — | — | 39% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Thu 8:15 PM ET |
| GB at CHI | CHI 00% | 66% | — | — | — | — | 66% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Fri 1:00 PM ET |
| BUF at DEN | DEN 00% | 54% | — | — | — | — | 54% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Fri 4:30 PM ET |
| LAR at SEA | SEA 00% | 66% | — | — | — | — | 66% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Fri 8:15 PM ET |
| CIN at IND | CIN 00% | 35% | — | — | — | — | 35% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| CAR at PIT | PIT 00% | 73% | — | — | — | — | 73% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| WSH at MIN | MIN 00% | 83% | — | — | — | — | 83% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| TB at ATL | ATL 00% | 51% | — | — | — | — | 51% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| NE at NYJ | NE 00% | 30% | — | — | — | — | 30% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| CLE at BAL | BAL 00% | 57% | — | — | — | — | 57% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| LAC at MIA | MIA 00% | 60% | — | — | — | — | 60% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| ARI at NO | NO 00% | 68% | — | — | — | — | 68% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| TEN at LV | LV 00% | 75% | — | — | — | — | 75% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 4:05 PM ET |
| SF at KC | SF 00% | 49% | — | — | — | — | 49% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| JAX at DAL | JAX 00% | 36% | — | — | — | — | 36% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 8:20 PM ET |
| NYG at DET | DET 00% | 76% | — | — | — | — | 76% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Mon 8:15 PM ET |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |