Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 27, 9:05 PM · dome
Tennessee Titans0–1 · Elo 1364 · Cam Ward (+19)
Las Vegas Raiders
1–0 · Elo 1420 · Kirk Cousins (+70) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LV | TEN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LV 71% | 71% | 29% | LV 1420 vs TEN 1364, implied spread LV −6.2 |
| Closing spread | LV 54% | 54% | 46% | LV -1.5 |
| The blend | LV 59% | 59% | 41% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Las Vegas Raiders over the Titans: Elo 71%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; Ward is worth 19 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LV 7 days, TEN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LV +70 (Kirk Cousins), TEN +19 (Cam Ward). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.