Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 18, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 10, 5:00 AM · outdoors
Las Vegas Raiders1–0 · Elo 1420 · Kirk Cousins (+70)
Kansas City Chiefs
1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | LV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 70% | 70% | 30% | KC 1518 vs LV 1420, implied spread KC −4.9 |
| Closing spread | KC 74% | 74% | 26% | KC -8.5 |
| The blend | KC 75% | 75% | 25% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Raiders: Elo 70%, market 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Rest: KC 7 days, LV 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes), LV +70 (Kirk Cousins). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.