Predictions · Week 18
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at GB | GB 00% | 52% | — | — | — | — | 52% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| ATL at CAR | CAR 00% | 52% | — | — | — | — | 52% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| PIT at BAL | PIT 00% | 48% | — | — | — | — | 48% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| JAX at IND | JAX 00% | 32% | — | — | — | — | 32% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| LV at KC | KC 00% | 70% | — | — | — | — | 70% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| TEN at HOU | HOU 00% | 76% | — | — | — | — | 76% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| NYJ at BUF | BUF 00% | 84% | — | — | — | — | 84% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| CLE at CIN | CIN 00% | 73% | — | — | — | — | 73% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| LAC at DEN | DEN 00% | 81% | — | — | — | — | 81% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| MIA at NE | NE 00% | 75% | — | — | — | — | 75% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| TB at NO | TB 00% | 44% | — | — | — | — | 44% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| CHI at MIN | MIN 00% | 68% | — | — | — | — | 68% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| SEA at LAR | SEA 00% | 47% | — | — | — | — | 47% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| PHI at NYG | NYG 00% | 63% | — | — | — | — | 63% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| SF at ARI | SF 00% | 22% | — | — | — | — | 22% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| DAL at WSH | WSH 00% | 57% | — | — | — | — | 57% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |