Predictions · Week 18
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.
| Game | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ at BUF | 76% | 77% | — | — | — | 79% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| CLE at CIN | 70% | 71% | — | — | — | 73% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| LAC at DEN | 59% | 54% | — | — | — | 56% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 5:00 AM |
| DET at GB | 56% | 57% | — | — | — | 59% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| JAX at IND | 48% | 54% | — | — | — | 53% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sun 5:00 AM |
| LV at KC | 70% | 74% | — | — | — | 75% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| SEA at LAR | 53% | 59% | — | — | — | 57% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 5:00 AM |
| CHI at MIN | 59% | 54% | — | — | — | 55% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 5:00 AM |
| MIA at NE | 70% | 78% | — | — | — | 76% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| TB at NO | 50% | 46% | — | — | — | 47% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sun 5:00 AM |
| PHI at NYG | 43% | 41% | — | — | — | 40% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| SF at ARI | 32% | 26% | — | — | — | 28% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| DAL at WSH | 52% | 46% | — | — | — | 47% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sun 5:00 AM |
| ATL at CAR | 57% | 57% | — | — | — | 59% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| PIT at BAL | 66% | 66% | — | — | — | 68% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
| TEN at HOU | 74% | 70% | — | — | — | 71% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 5:00 AM |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 7 games
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
BUF over NYJ
Elo 76% · Mkt 77% · Blend 79%
NYJ at BUF · Sun 5 AM
CIN over CLE
Elo 70% · Mkt 71% · Blend 73%
CLE at CIN · Sun 5 AM
GB over DET
Elo 56% · Mkt 57% · Blend 59%
DET at GB · Sun 5 AM
KC over LV
Elo 70% · Mkt 74% · Blend 75%
LV at KC · Sun 5 AM
PHI over NYG
Elo 57% · Mkt 59% · Blend 60%
PHI at NYG · Sun 5 AM
CAR over ATL
Elo 57% · Mkt 57% · Blend 59%
ATL at CAR · Sun 5 AM
BAL over PIT
Elo 66% · Mkt 66% · Blend 68%
PIT at BAL · Sun 5 AM
Coin flips 3 games
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 3 games
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 3 games
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 17 | +78.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 17 | +77.4 |
| 3 | The System | 17 | +77.4 |
| 4 | Elo (the model) | 17 | +45.3 |