Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
← Back to Week 2 picks · Back to Week 2 predictions
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Final, recorded Sun 4:40 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:53 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 10 mph, 67°F
Green Bay Packers5–3 · Elo 1533 · Jordan Love
20–17
New York Jets
2–6 · Elo 1380 · Geno Smith (+22 Elo) · Home
Final: GB 20, NYJ 17. Elo moved NYJ 1444 → 1430 and GB 1500 → 1515.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | GB | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NYJ 52% | 52% | 48% | -2.0 | NYJ 1444 vs GB 1500, implied spread NYJ −0.5 |
| Closing spread | GB 60% | 40% | 60% | +9.0 | NYJ +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | GB 62% | 38% | 62% | +10.6 | |
| Kalshi | GB 61% | 40% | 61% | +9.0 | |
| Polymarket | GB 61% | 40% | 61% | +9.0 | |
| The blend | GB 58% | 42% | 58% | +7.4 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Green Bay Packers over the Jets: Elo 48%, market 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Importance 44 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 24.
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, GB 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. NYJ: Geno Smith (+22 Elo). GB: Jordan Love (+0 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 10 mph, 67°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread NYJ +3.5, total 44. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $706k traded, $580k open · Polymarket: $1.1M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Packers 20, Jets 17. Green Bay Packers at New York Jets, Week 2. The Packers won 20 to 17; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (J.Brownlee. Attendance 78,674. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Packers at 61%, Elo at 48%, The System at 58%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+9.8).
- Elo: Packers 48%, -2.0
- The market: Packers 61%, +9.8
- The System: Packers 58%, +7.4
- The bot crowd: Packers 57%, +6.5
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (J.Brownlee).PENALTY on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37. in the 5th quarter at 6:17, which moved the home side's chances from 37% to 10%.
- Largest lead: Jets by 10. Lead changes: 2.
- Packers's live win probability ranged from 11% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 7:58: Christian Watson 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick) (GB 14, NYJ 17)
- Q4 2:59: Trey Smack 34 Yd Field Goal (GB 17, NYJ 17)
- Q5 5:23: Trey Smack 26 Yd Field Goal (GB 20, NYJ 17)
The box score
The Jets outgained the Packers, 285 to 199; the difference was elsewhere.
- Total yards: GB 199, NYJ 285
- Yards per play: GB 4.0, NYJ 4.0
- Third downs: GB 1-9, NYJ 8-19
- Turnovers: GB 1, NYJ 0
- Penalties: GB 14-133, NYJ 13-156
- Possession: GB 26:57, NYJ 37:40
- Red zone: GB 2-4, NYJ 2-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Jets -14 to 1430, Packers +14 to 1515. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYJ +22, GB +0.
- Jordan Love (GB): 16/29, 145 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 91.9
- Geno Smith (NYJ): 27/41, 247 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 90.2
- Rushing: Breece Hall (NYJ), 16 CAR, 29 YDS
- Receiving: Breece Hall (NYJ), 5 REC, 63 YDS
- Rushing: Kaleb Johnson (GB), 8 CAR, 32 YDS
- Receiving: Matthew Golden (GB), 4 REC, 58 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +10.5 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +6.5 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Packers 64%, +12.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 12:53 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward NYJ by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NYJ) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 39% | 40% | +1 | 3 |
| Sportsbooks | 38% | 38% | +1 | 6 |
| Kalshi | 39% | 40% | +1 | 1 |
Consensus over time