Predictions · Week 2
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at BUF | BUF 67% ✓ | 64% | 66% | — | — | — | 67% | 67% | — | — | — | Tight agreement | DET 31, BUF 41 |
| CAR at ATL | CAR 51% ✓ | 63% | 43% | 42% | 45% | 46% | 49% | 49% | — | — | 47 | Big disagreement | CAR 34, ATL 3 |
| CIN at HOU | HOU 59% ✗ | 62% | 59% | 58% | 57% | 57% | 59% | 59% | — | — | 64 | Everything else | CIN 20, HOU 6 |
| NO at BAL Lock of the week | BAL 76% ✗ | 72% | 74% | 78% | 79% | 79% | 77% | 76% | — | — | 46 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | NO 24, BAL 17 |
| MIN at CHI | CHI 62% ✗ | 51% | 63% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 62% | 62% | — | — | 45 | Big disagreement | MIN 9, CHI 3 |
| PHI at TEN | PHI 70% ✓ | 33% | 30% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 27% | 30% | — | — | 39 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | PHI 24, TEN 20 |
| PIT at NE | NE 69% ✓ | 66% | 63% | 67% | 68% | 68% | 69% | 69% | — | — | 59 | Tight agreement | PIT 3, NE 20 |
| GB at NYJ | GB 58% ✓ | 52% | 40% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 42% | 42% | — | — | 44 | Big disagreement | GB 20, NYJ 17 |
| CLE at TB | TB 71% ✗ | 58% | 74% | 78% | 79% | 78% | 73% | 71% | — | — | 51 | Big disagreement | CLE 23, TB 19 |
| LV at LAC | LAC 69% ✗ | 58% | 69% | 72% | 74% | 74% | 69% | 69% | — | — | 53 | Big disagreement | LV 26, LAC 14 |
| JAX at DEN | DEN 55% ✓ | 53% | 57% | 58% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 55% | — | — | 54 | Everything else | JAX 13, DEN 20 |
| WSH at DAL | DAL 63% ✓ | 55% | 60% | 65% | 66% | 66% | 63% | 63% | — | — | 49 | Big disagreement | WSH 20, DAL 37 |
| SEA at ARI | SEA 68% ✓ | 32% | 40% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 32% | 32% | — | — | 52 | Tight agreement | SEA 31, ARI 7 |
| MIA at SF Bold call of the week | SF 83% ✓ | 67% | 82% | 88% | 89% | 89% | 83% | 83% | — | — | 43 | Big disagreement | MIA 13, SF 35 |
| IND at KC | KC 73% ✓ | 70% | 67% | 71% | 72% | 72% | 73% | 73% | — | — | 49 | Tight agreement | IND 30, KC 33 |
| NYG at LAR | LAR 74% ✓ | 70% | 69% | 73% | 72% | 73% | 74% | 74% | — | — | 38 | Tight agreement | NYG 6, LAR 28 |
| Points this week | +33.0 | +25.3 | +16.2 | +6.1 | +7.2 | +36.9 | +38.8 | — | — | on 16 decided games | |||
| Right | 9/16 | 11/16 | 10/15 | 10/15 | 10/15 | 11/16 | 11/16 | — | — | ||||
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 5 games · favorite 5 for 5 so far
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
31–41
BUF over DET ✓
Elo 64% · Mkt 66% · Blend 67%
DET at BUF · Final
3–20
NE over PIT ✓
Elo 66% · Mkt 67% · Blend 69%
PIT at NE · Final
31–7
SEA over ARI ✓
Elo 68% · Mkt 65% · Blend 68%
SEA at ARI · Final
30–33
KC over IND ✓
Elo 70% · Mkt 71% · Blend 73%
IND at KC · Final
6–28
LAR over NYG ✓
Elo 70% · Mkt 72% · Blend 74%
NYG at LAR · Final
Big disagreement 7 games · favorite 4 for 7 so far
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time.
34–3
CAR over ATL ✓
Elo 37% · Mkt 56%
CAR at ATL · Final
9–3
CHI over MIN ✗
Elo 51% · Mkt 66%
MIN at CHI · Final
20–17
GB over NYJ ✓
Elo 48% · Mkt 61%
GB at NYJ · Final
23–19
TB over CLE ✗
Elo 58% · Mkt 78%
CLE at TB · Final
26–14
LAC over LV ✗
Elo 58% · Mkt 73%
LV at LAC · Final
20–37
DAL over WSH ✓
Elo 55% · Mkt 65%
WSH at DAL · Final
13–35
SF over MIA ✓
Elo 67% · Mkt 88%
MIA at SF · Final
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 2 games · favorite 1 for 2 so far
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 2 games · favorite 1 for 2 so far
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |