The Report · data-driven NFL insights, delivered every morning

Can you beat The System?

Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System, our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 2

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Thursday, Sep 17

DETLions
Elo: BUF 64%Spread: BUF 66%
31–41
BillsBUF
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
—
Elo 36%
Spread 34%
Goff
no pick
—
Elo 64%
Spread 66%
Allen (−10 Elo)
Final: BUF 41, DET 31. Elo moved BUF 1595 → 1612, DET 1535 → 1519.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +14.1 · Elo +12.0
Read the post-game report →

Sunday, Sep 20

CARPanthers
Elo: ATL 63%Market: CAR 56%Spread: CAR 57%
34–3
FalconsATL
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 37%
Spread 57%
Books 58% · Kalshi 55% · Poly 54% · Crowd 40%
Young
no pick
—
Elo 63%
Spread 43%
Books 42% · Kalshi 45% · Poly 46% · Crowd 60%
Tagovailoa (+16 Elo)
Final: CAR 34, ATL 3. Elo moved CAR 1431 → 1476, ATL 1465 → 1419.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +2.9 · Elo -14.7
Read the post-game report →
CINBengals
Elo: HOU 62%Market: HOU 58%Spread: HOU 59%
20–6
TexansHOU
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 38%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 43% · Poly 43% · Crowd 36%
Burrow (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 62%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 57% · Poly 57% · Crowd 65%
Stroud
Final: CIN 20, HOU 6. Elo moved CIN 1505 → 1540, HOU 1556 → 1521.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -9.8 · Elo -13.4
Read the post-game report →
NOSaints
Elo: BAL 72%Market: BAL 78%Spread: BAL 74%
24–17
RavensBAL
AwayFinalHome
wind 11 mph, 80°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 28%
Spread 26%
Books 22% · Kalshi 21% · Poly 21% · Crowd 19%
Shough (−16 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 72%
Spread 74%
Books 78% · Kalshi 79% · Poly 79% · Crowd 81%
Jackson (+13 Elo)
Final: NO 24, BAL 17. Elo moved NO 1472 → 1504, BAL 1559 → 1527.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -32.8 · Elo -26.8
Read the post-game report →
MINVikings
Elo: CHI 51%Market: CHI 66%Spread: CHI 63%
9–3
BearsCHI
AwayFinalHome
wind 13 mph, 66°F
—
Elo 49%
Spread 37%
Books 34% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35% · Crowd 31%
Wentz (+43 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 51%
Spread 63%
Books 66% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66% · Crowd 70%
Williams
Final: MIN 9, CHI 3. Elo moved MIN 1555 → 1575, CHI 1557 → 1537.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -13.4 · Elo -1.0
Read the post-game report →
PHIEagles
Elo: PHI 67%Market: PHI 75%Spread: PHI 70%
24–20
TitansTEN
AwayFinalHome
wind 3 mph, 96°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 67%
Spread 70%
Books 75% · Kalshi 75% · Poly 75% · Crowd 83%
Hurts (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 33%
Spread 30%
Books 25% · Kalshi 26% · Poly 26% · Crowd 18%
Ward (+19 Elo)
Final: PHI 24, TEN 20. Elo moved PHI 1539 → 1549, TEN 1364 → 1354.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +16.0 · Elo +14.1
Read the post-game report →
PITSteelers
Elo: NE 66%Market: NE 67%Spread: NE 63%
3–20
PatriotsNE
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 6 mph, 60°F
—
Elo 34%
Spread 37%
Books 33% · Kalshi 32% · Poly 32% · Crowd 26%
Rodgers
no pick
—
Elo 66%
Spread 63%
Books 67% · Kalshi 68% · Poly 68% · Crowd 75%
off bye · Maye
Final: NE 20, PIT 3. Elo moved NE 1564 → 1583, PIT 1526 → 1507.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +15.4 · Elo +13.4
Read the post-game report →
GBPackers
Elo: NYJ 52%Market: GB 61%Spread: GB 60%
20–17
JetsNYJ
AwayFinalHome
wind 10 mph, 67°F
—
Elo 48%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 61% · Poly 61% · Crowd 62%
Love
no pick
—
Elo 52%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 40% · Poly 40% · Crowd 38%
Smith (+22 Elo)
Final: GB 20, NYJ 17. Elo moved GB 1500 → 1515, NYJ 1444 → 1430.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +7.4 · Elo -2.0
Read the post-game report →
CLEBrowns
Elo: TB 58%Market: TB 78%Spread: TB 74%
23–19
BuccaneersTB
AwayFinalHome
wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 42%
Spread 26%
Books 22% · Kalshi 21% · Poly 22% · Crowd 15%
Watson (+34 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 58%
Spread 74%
Books 78% · Kalshi 79% · Poly 78% · Crowd 85%
Mayfield
Final: CLE 23, TB 19. Elo moved CLE 1423 → 1442, TB 1466 → 1447.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -25.4 · Elo -8.6
Read the post-game report →
LVRaiders
Elo: LAC 58%Market: LAC 73%Spread: LAC 69%
26–14
ChargersLAC
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 42%
Spread 31%
Books 28% · Kalshi 27% · Poly 27% · Crowd 21%
Cousins (+70 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 58%
Spread 69%
Books 72% · Kalshi 74% · Poly 74% · Crowd 79%
Herbert (+18 Elo)
Final: LV 26, LAC 14. Elo moved LV 1420 → 1450, LAC 1481 → 1451.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -22.6 · Elo -8.6
Read the post-game report →
JAXJaguars
Elo: DEN 53%Market: DEN 57%Spread: DEN 57%
13–20
BroncosDEN
AwayFinalHome
wind 6 mph, 76°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 47%
Spread 43%
Books 42% · Kalshi 44% · Poly 44% · Crowd 43%
Lawrence
no pick
—
Elo 53%
Spread 57%
Books 58% · Kalshi 56% · Poly 56% · Crowd 57%
Nix
Final: DEN 20, JAX 13. Elo moved DEN 1547 → 1567, JAX 1571 → 1552.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +4.8 · Elo +2.9
Read the post-game report →
WSHCommanders
Elo: DAL 55%Market: DAL 65%Spread: DAL 60%
20–37
CowboysDAL
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 45%
Spread 40%
Books 35% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35% · Crowd 35%
Daniels (+15 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 55%
Spread 60%
Books 65% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66% · Crowd 66%
Prescott (+17 Elo)
Final: DAL 37, WSH 20. Elo moved DAL 1449 → 1475, WSH 1467 → 1441.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +11.3 · Elo +4.8
Read the post-game report →
SEASeahawks
Elo: SEA 68%Market: SEA 65%Spread: SEA 60%
31–7
CardinalsARI
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
—
Elo 68%
Spread 60%
Books 65% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66% · Crowd 74%
Lock (−30 Elo) · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 32%
Spread 40%
Books 35% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35% · Crowd 26%
Brissett (−40 Elo)
Final: SEA 31, ARI 7. Elo moved SEA 1636 → 1655, ARI 1488 → 1469.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +14.8 · Elo +14.8
Read the post-game report →
MIADolphins
Elo: SF 67%Market: SF 88%Spread: SF 82%
13–35
49ersSF
AwayFinalHome
wind 7 mph, 66°F
—
Elo 33%
Spread 18%
Books 12% · Kalshi 12% · Poly 12% · Crowd 2%
Willis (+90 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 67%
Spread 82%
Books 88% · Kalshi 89% · Poly 89% · Crowd 99%
off bye · Purdy
Final: SF 35, MIA 13. Elo moved SF 1584 → 1603, MIA 1440 → 1421.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +22.1 · Elo +14.1
Read the post-game report →
INDColts
Elo: KC 70%Market: KC 71%Spread: KC 67%
30–33
ChiefsKC
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 8 mph, 71°F
—
Elo 30%
Spread 33%
Books 29% · Kalshi 29% · Poly 29% · Crowd 21%
Jones
no pick
—
Elo 70%
Spread 67%
Books 71% · Kalshi 72% · Poly 72% · Crowd 79%
Mahomes (+46 Elo)
Final: KC 33, IND 30. Elo moved KC 1518 → 1526, IND 1472 → 1464.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +17.7 · Elo +16.0
Read the post-game report →

Monday, Sep 21

NYGGiants
Elo: LAR 70%Market: LAR 72%Spread: LAR 69%
6–28
RamsLAR
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
—
Elo 30%
Spread 31%
Books 27% · Kalshi 29% · Poly 28% · Crowd 22%
Dart
no pick
—
Elo 70%
Spread 69%
Books 73% · Kalshi 72% · Poly 73% · Crowd 78%
off bye · Stafford
Final: LAR 28, NYG 6. Elo moved LAR 1545 → 1562, NYG 1474 → 1457.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +17.7 · Elo +16.0
Read the post-game report →