Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Final, recorded Sun 7:22 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:07 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · State Farm Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · closed
Seattle Seahawks4–3 · Elo 1643 · Drew Lock (−30 Elo) · off a bye
31–7
Arizona Cardinals
3–5 · Elo 1439 · Jacoby Brissett (−40 Elo) · Home
Final: SEA 31, ARI 7. Elo moved ARI 1488 → 1469 and SEA 1636 → 1655.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ARI | SEA | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 68% | 32% | 68% | +14.8 | ARI 1488 vs SEA 1636, implied spread ARI +5.4 |
| Closing spread | SEA 60% | 40% | 60% | +9.0 | ARI +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | SEA 65% | 35% | 65% | +12.8 | |
| Kalshi | SEA 66% | 35% | 66% | +12.8 | |
| Polymarket | SEA 66% | 35% | 66% | +12.8 | |
| The blend | SEA 68% | 32% | 68% | +14.8 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 68%, market 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo; Lock is costing 30 Elo; SEA off a bye.
Details
- Importance 52 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 53.
- Rest: ARI 7 days, SEA 11 days. SEA off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. ARI: Jacoby Brissett (-40 Elo). SEA: Drew Lock (-30 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread ARI +4, total 41. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $320k traded, $299k open · Polymarket: $208k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7. Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, Week 2. The Seahawks won 31 to 7; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Lock pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra . Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Seahawks at 65%, Elo at 68%, The System at 68%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+14.8).
- Elo: Seahawks 68%, +14.8
- The market: Seahawks 65%, +12.8
- The System: Seahawks 68%, +14.8
- The bot crowd: Seahawks 66%, +13.4
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Lock pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson. in the first quarter at 12:25, which moved the home side's chances from 54% to 37%.
- Largest lead: Seahawks by 24. Lead changes: 0.
- Seahawks's live win probability ranged from 39% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 6:47: Jason Myers 33 Yd Field Goal (SEA 17, ARI 7)
- Q4 12:40: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 12 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick) (SEA 24, ARI 7)
- Q4 1:11: AJ Barner 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick) (SEA 31, ARI 7)
The box score
The Seahawks won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: SEA 381, ARI 150
- Yards per play: SEA 5.7, ARI 3.2
- Third downs: SEA 6-13, ARI 3-12
- Turnovers: SEA 1, ARI 1
- Penalties: SEA 3-26, ARI 6-48
- Possession: SEA 36:33, ARI 23:27
- Red zone: SEA 3-5, ARI 1-1
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Cardinals -19 to 1469, Seahawks +19 to 1655. The quarterback adjustment going in was ARI -40, SEA -30.
- Drew Lock (SEA): 19/26, 235 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 139.1
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 17/28, 95 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 63.8
- Rushing: Jeremiyah Love (ARI), 9 CAR, 29 YDS
- Receiving: Trey McBride (ARI), 8 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Emanuel Wilson (SEA), 21 CAR, 92 YDS
- Receiving: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), 9 REC, 155 YDS, 3 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +18.1 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +13.7 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Seahawks 78%, +20.2.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 3:10 AM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (ARI) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 35% | 35% | — | 2 |
| Sportsbooks | 35% | 35% | — | 4 |
| Kalshi | 35% | 35% | — | 0 |
Consensus over time