Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
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Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Final, recorded Sun 7:35 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:07 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · AT&T Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · closed
Washington Commanders2–4–1 · Elo 1443 · Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo)
20–37
Dallas Cowboys
3–5 · Elo 1443 · Dak Prescott (+17 Elo) · Home
Final: WSH 20, DAL 37. Elo moved DAL 1449 → 1475 and WSH 1467 → 1441.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DAL | WSH | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DAL 55% | 55% | 45% | +4.8 | DAL 1449 vs WSH 1467, implied spread DAL −1.3 |
| Closing spread | DAL 60% | 60% | 40% | +9.0 | DAL -3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | DAL 65% | 65% | 35% | +12.8 | |
| Kalshi | DAL 66% | 66% | 35% | +13.4 | |
| Polymarket | DAL 66% | 66% | 35% | +13.4 | |
| The blend | DAL 63% | 63% | 37% | +11.3 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Dallas Cowboys over the Commanders: Elo 55%, market 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 49 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 19.
- Rest: DAL 7 days, WSH 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. DAL: Dak Prescott (+17 Elo). WSH: Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread DAL -4, total 51. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $662k traded, $607k open · Polymarket: $756k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Cowboys 37, Commanders 20. Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, Week 2. The Cowboys won 37 to 20; the game turned on M.Mariota pass short left to D.Brown to WAS 18 for -6 yards (J.Barham). FUMBLES (J.Barham). Attendance 93,188. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Cowboys at 65%, Elo at 55%, The System at 63%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+12.8).
- Elo: Cowboys 55%, +4.8
- The market: Cowboys 65%, +12.8
- The System: Cowboys 63%, +11.3
- The bot crowd: Cowboys 63%, +11.3
How it happened
The swing: M.Mariota pass short left to D.Brown to WAS 18 for -6 yards (J.Barham). FUMBLES (J.Barham), RECOVERED by DAL-D.Winters at WAS 18. D.Winters ran ob at WAS 13 for 5 yards. in the third quarter at 7:15, which moved the home side's chances from 80% to 90%.
- Largest lead: Cowboys by 17. Lead changes: 0.
- Cowboys's live win probability ranged from 65% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 13:22: Brandon Aubrey 60 Yd Field Goal (WSH 13, DAL 30)
- Q4 9:03: Stefon Diggs 20 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Drew Stevens Kick) (WSH 20, DAL 30)
- Q4 3:07: CeeDee Lamb 24 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick) (WSH 20, DAL 37)
The box score
The Commanders outgained the Cowboys (389 to 332 yards) and lost on turnovers (1 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: WSH 389, DAL 332
- Yards per play: WSH 5.8, DAL 6.1
- Third downs: WSH 8-14, DAL 7-11
- Turnovers: WSH 1, DAL 0
- Penalties: WSH 5-38, DAL 5-32
- Possession: WSH 31:29, DAL 28:31
- Red zone: WSH 1-3, DAL 3-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Cowboys +26 to 1475, Commanders -26 to 1441. The quarterback adjustment going in was DAL +17, WSH +15.
- Marcus Mariota (WSH): 11/16, 111 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 109.1
- Dak Prescott (DAL): 26/31, 279 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, QBR 143.8
- Rushing: Javonte Williams (DAL), 12 CAR, 30 YDS
- Receiving: CeeDee Lamb (DAL), 8 REC, 153 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Jayden Daniels (WSH), 7 CAR, 69 YDS
- Receiving: Terry McLaurin (WSH), 2 REC, 50 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +13.1 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +10.9 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Cowboys 68%, +14.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 2:36 PM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DAL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 65% | 65% | — | 6 |
| Kalshi | 66% | 66% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 66% | 66% | — | 2 |
Consensus over time