Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Game data updated 30 min ago · markets priced 30 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 8:25 PM · closed
Washington Commanders
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DAL | WSH | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DAL 55% | 55% | 45% | DAL 1449 vs WSH 1467, implied spread DAL −1.3 |
| Closing spread | DAL 60% | 60% | 40% | DAL -3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | DAL 65% | 65% | 35% | |
| Kalshi | DAL 66% | 66% | 35% | |
| Polymarket | DAL 66% | 66% | 35% | |
| The blend | DAL 63% | 63% | 37% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Dallas Cowboys over the Commanders: Elo 55%, market 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 49 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 19.
- Rest: DAL 7 days, WSH 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: DAL +17 (Dak Prescott), WSH +15 (Jayden Daniels). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DAL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 66% | 66% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 66% | 66% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 65% | 65% | — | 0 |