Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Final, recorded Sun 4:11 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:40 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Houston Texans2–5 · Elo 1498 · C.J. Stroud
17–19
Indianapolis Colts
2–6 · Elo 1434 · Daniel Jones · Home
Final: HOU 17, IND 19. Elo moved IND 1464 → 1476 and HOU 1521 → 1510.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | IND | HOU | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 52% | 48% | 52% | -2.0 | IND 1464 vs HOU 1521, implied spread IND +0.6 |
| Closing spread | HOU 54% | 46% | 54% | -4.2 | IND +1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | HOU 53% | 47% | 53% | -3.1 | |
| Kalshi | HOU 53% | 47% | 53% | -3.1 | |
| Polymarket | HOU 53% | 48% | 53% | -2.0 | |
| The blend | HOU 53% | 47% | 53% | -3.1 | |
| The crowd (4) | HOU 52% | 48% | 52% | -2.0 | |
| The sharp crowd | HOU 52% | 48% | 52% | -2.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
Houston Texans over the Colts: Elo 52%, market 53%. Coin flip: stay near 50.
Details
- Importance 47 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 31.
- Rest: IND 7 days, HOU 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. IND: Daniel Jones (-6 Elo). HOU: C.J. Stroud (+1 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread IND +1.5, total 42.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $340k traded, $318k open · Polymarket: $686k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Colts 19, Texans 17. Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, Week 3. The Colts won 19 to 17; the game turned on S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Colts at 47%, Elo at 48%, The System at 47%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-2.0).
- Elo: Colts 48%, -2.0
- The market: Colts 47%, -3.1
- The System: Colts 47%, -3.1
- The crowd: Colts 48%, -2.0
- The bot crowd: Colts 48%, -2.0
How it happened
The swing: S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez. in the fourth quarter at 0:16, which moved the home side's chances from 67% to 100%.
- Largest lead: Colts by 10. Lead changes: 2.
- Colts's live win probability ranged from 36% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 7:33: Ka'imi Fairbairn 24 Yd Field Goal (HOU 10, IND 16)
- Q4 1:48: Woody Marks 1 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) (HOU 17, IND 16)
- Q4 0:16: Spencer Shrader 53 Yd Field Goal (HOU 17, IND 19)
The box score
The Colts won the yards, 300 to 223.
- Total yards: HOU 223, IND 300
- Yards per play: HOU 4.4, IND 4.2
- Third downs: HOU 4-11, IND 7-15
- Turnovers: HOU 0, IND 3
- Penalties: HOU 2-14, IND 6-41
- Possession: HOU 24:47, IND 35:13
- Red zone: HOU 2-3, IND 1-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Colts +12 to 1476, Texans -12 to 1510.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU): 16/27, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 89.6
- Daniel Jones (IND): 24/36, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 82.5
- Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (IND), 23 CAR, 68 YDS
- Receiving: Josh Downs (IND), 5 REC, 77 YDS
- Rushing: David Montgomery (HOU), 11 CAR, 33 YDS
- Receiving: Xavier Hutchinson (HOU), 3 REC, 51 YDS
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -2.3 and 1 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged -2.4 and 2 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Colts 50%, +0.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:40 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward IND by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (IND) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 47% | +3 | 37 |
| Polymarket | 44% | 48% | +3 | 34 |
| Sportsbooks | 44% | 47% | +3 | 17 |
Consensus over time