Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Final, recorded Sun 11:57 PM ET · markets priced Sun 8:07 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Sunday, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET · outdoors · wind 10 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites)
Final: LAR 26, DEN 30. Elo moved DEN 1567 → 1580 and LAR 1562 → 1549.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | LAR | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 57% | 57% | 43% | +6.5 | DEN 1567 vs LAR 1562, implied spread DEN −2.1 |
| Closing spread | DEN 54% | 54% | 46% | +3.8 | DEN -1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | LAR 54% | 46% | 54% | -4.2 | |
| Kalshi | DEN 51% | 51% | 50% | +1.0 | |
| Polymarket | DEN 51% | 51% | 50% | +1.0 | |
| The blend | DEN 51% | 51% | 49% | +1.0 | |
| The crowd (4) | LAR 52% | 48% | 52% | -2.0 | |
| The sharp crowd | LAR 52% | 48% | 52% | -2.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Denver Broncos over the Rams: Elo 57%, market 49%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 10 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 52 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 55.
- Rest: DEN 7 days, LAR 6 days.
- Quarterbacks. DEN: Bo Nix (-1 Elo). LAR: Matthew Stafford (0 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 10 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread DEN +1.5, total 44. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $3.7M traded, $3.6M open · Polymarket: $1.7M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
- Markets disagree with each other: Books 46% vs Kalshi 51%, 4 points apart.
The post-game report
Broncos 30, Rams 26: back and forth. Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos, Week 3. The Broncos won 30 to 26; the game turned on (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at D. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Broncos at 49%, Elo at 57%, The System at 51%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+6.5).
- Elo: Broncos 57%, +6.5
- The market: Broncos 49%, -1.0
- The System: Broncos 51%, +1.0
- The crowd: Broncos 48%, -2.0
- The bot crowd: Broncos 51%, +1.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN 34. T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw. in the fourth quarter at 4:49, which moved the home side's chances from 20% to 71%.
- Largest lead: Rams by 16. Lead changes: 3.
- Broncos's live win probability ranged from 5% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 4:49: Talanoa Hufanga 66 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick) (LAR 19, DEN 23)
- Q4 3:38: Konata Mumpfield 48 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick) (LAR 26, DEN 23)
- Q4 0:47: Bo Nix 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick) (LAR 26, DEN 30)
The box score
The Rams outgained the Broncos (482 to 257 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: LAR 482, DEN 257
- Yards per play: LAR 5.9, DEN 4.3
- Third downs: LAR 8-17, DEN 7-13
- Turnovers: LAR 2, DEN 1
- Penalties: LAR 13-91, DEN 5-38
- Possession: LAR 34:29, DEN 25:31
- Red zone: LAR 1-4, DEN 3-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Broncos +13 to 1580, Rams -13 to 1549.
- Matthew Stafford (LAR): 30/55, 390 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, QBR 74.1
- Bo Nix (DEN): 17/34, 186 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 73.9
- Rushing: J.K. Dobbins (DEN), 17 CAR, 49 YDS
- Receiving: Courtland Sutton (DEN), 3 REC, 46 YDS
- Rushing: Kyren Williams (LAR), 15 CAR, 88 YDS
- Receiving: Davante Adams (LAR), 7 REC, 137 YDS
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -1.8 and 0 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +1.0 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Broncos 54%, +3.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 8 PM ET; last change Sun 8:07 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward DEN by 6 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DEN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 51% | +7 | 48 |
| Polymarket | 46% | 51% | +5 | 34 |
| Sportsbooks | 45% | 46% | +1 | 20 |
Consensus over time