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Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Final, recorded Sun 4:14 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:54 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Reliant Stadium · Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Dallas Cowboys3–5 · Elo 1443 · Dak Prescott (+17 Elo)
34–30
Houston Texans
2–5 · Elo 1498 · C.J. Stroud · Home
Final: DAL 34, HOU 30. Elo moved HOU 1510 → 1489 and DAL 1463 → 1483.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | HOU | DAL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 61% | 61% | 39% | -12.2 | HOU 1510 vs DAL 1463, implied spread HOU −3.1 |
| Closing spread | HOU 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 | HOU -3 |
| Sportsbooks | HOU 58% | 58% | 42% | -8.6 | |
| Kalshi | HOU 57% | 57% | 43% | -7.5 | |
| Polymarket | HOU 57% | 57% | 43% | -7.5 | |
| The blend | HOU 61% | 61% | 39% | -12.2 | |
| The crowd (3) | HOU 60% | 60% | 40% | -11.0 | |
| The sharp crowd | HOU 60% | 60% | 40% | -11.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Houston Texans over the Cowboys: Elo 61%, market 58%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 47 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 29.
- Rest: HOU 7 days, DAL 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. HOU: C.J. Stroud (+1 Elo). DAL: Dak Prescott (+17 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread HOU -3, total 48.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $897k traded, $847k open · Polymarket: $1.5M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Cowboys 34, Texans 30: back and forth. Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans, Week 4. The Cowboys won 34 to 30; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra p. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Cowboys at 42%, Elo at 39%, The System at 39%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (-8.6).
- Elo: Cowboys 39%, -12.2
- The market: Cowboys 42%, -8.6
- The System: Cowboys 39%, -12.2
- The crowd: Cowboys 40%, -11.0
- The bot crowd: Cowboys 39%, -12.2
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: HST-J.Crumedy has returned to the game. in the fourth quarter at 0:40, which moved the home side's chances from 46% to 1%.
- Largest lead: Texans by 10. Lead changes: 3.
- Cowboys's live win probability ranged from 21% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 11:17: Javonte Williams 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick) (DAL 27, HOU 23)
- Q4 2:23: Woody Marks 6 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) (DAL 27, HOU 30)
- Q4 0:40: CeeDee Lamb 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick) (DAL 34, HOU 30)
The box score
The Cowboys won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: DAL 399, HOU 397
- Yards per play: DAL 5.5, HOU 7.6
- Third downs: DAL 5-14, HOU 3-10
- Turnovers: DAL 0, HOU 0
- Penalties: DAL 6-47, HOU 13-90
- Possession: DAL 33:27, HOU 26:33
- Red zone: DAL 4-4, HOU 2-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Texans -20 to 1489, Cowboys +20 to 1483. The quarterback adjustment going in was HOU +1, DAL +17.
- Dak Prescott (DAL): 32/45, 335 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 99.8
- C.J. Stroud (HOU): 21/31, 347 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 126.7
- Rushing: David Montgomery (HOU), 10 CAR, 24 YDS
- Receiving: Nico Collins (HOU), 7 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Javonte Williams (DAL), 19 CAR, 62 YDS, 3 TD
- Receiving: CeeDee Lamb (DAL), 17 REC, 189 YDS, 1 TD
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -11.0 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -11.9 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Texans 56%, -6.4.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 26, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 10:35 AM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (HOU) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57% | 57% | — | 46 |
| Polymarket | 57% | 57% | — | 36 |
| Sportsbooks | 58% | 58% | — | 18 |
Consensus over time