Can you beat The System? Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System , our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it ). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work .
Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.Week 4 Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.
All (16) In play (0) Upcoming (0) Finished (16)
Thursday, Oct 1 PIT Steelers Elo: CLE 52% Market: PIT 58% Spread: PIT 57% 24–27
Browns CLE Away Final Home
wind 9 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 48%
Spread 57%
Books 58% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 59% · Crowd 52%
Rodgers
no pick
—
Elo 52%
Spread 43%
Books 42% · Kalshi 42% · Poly 42% · Crowd 48%
Watson (+34 Elo)
Final: CLE 27 , PIT 24. Elo moved CLE 1454 → 1467, PIT 1521 → 1508.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -5.2 · Elo +2.0
Read the post-game report → Sunday, Oct 4 IND Colts Elo: IND 64% Market: IND 66% Spread: IND 63% 30–13
Commanders WSH Neutral site Final
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 6 mph, 68°F
—
Elo 64%
Spread 63%
Books 66% · Kalshi 67% · Poly 67% · Crowd 62%
Jones
no pick
—
Elo 36%
Spread 37%
Books 34% · Kalshi 34% · Poly 34% · Crowd 38%
Mariota
Final: IND 30 , WSH 13. Elo moved IND 1476 → 1504, WSH 1457 → 1428.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +14.8 · Elo +12.0
Read the post-game report → NYJ Jets Elo: CHI 62% Market: CHI 63% Spread: CHI 60% 12–23
Bears CHI Away Final Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
wind 7 mph, 66°F
—
Elo 38%
Spread 40%
Books 37% · Kalshi 37% · Poly 38% · Crowd 39%
Smith (+22 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 62%
Spread 60%
Books 63% · Kalshi 64% · Poly 63% · Crowd 61%
Keenum (−100 Elo)
Final: CHI 23 , NYJ 12. Elo moved CHI 1576 → 1594, NYJ 1418 → 1399.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +12.8 · Elo +10.6
Read the post-game report → ARI Cardinals Elo: NYG 54% Market: ARI 56% Spread: ARI 57% 24–36
Giants NYG Away Final Home
wind 5 mph, 63°F
—
Elo 46%
Spread 57%
Books 56% · Kalshi 55% · Poly 55% · Crowd 46%
Brissett (−40 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 54%
Spread 43%
Books 44% · Kalshi 45% · Poly 45% · Crowd 54%
Winston (−71 Elo)
Final: NYG 36 , ARI 24. Elo moved NYG 1471 → 1495, ARI 1461 → 1438.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -3.1 · Elo +3.8
Read the post-game report → LAR Rams Elo: PHI 54% Market: LAR 63% Spread: LAR 60% 24–20
Eagles PHI Away Final Home
wind 6 mph, 63°F
—
Elo 46%
Spread 60%
Books 63% · Kalshi 65% · Poly 63% · Crowd 53%
Stafford
no pick
—
Elo 54%
Spread 40%
Books 37% · Kalshi 36% · Poly 38% · Crowd 47%
Hurts (+17 Elo)
Final: LAR 24 , PHI 20. Elo moved LAR 1549 → 1566, PHI 1510 → 1492.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +8.2 · Elo -4.2
Read the post-game report → GB Packers Elo: GB 66% Market: GB 59% Spread: GB 59% 17–14
Buccaneers TB Away Final Home
wind 4 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 66%
Spread 59%
Books 60% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 59% · Crowd 56%
Love · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 34%
Spread 41%
Books 40% · Kalshi 42% · Poly 42% · Crowd 44%
Daniels (−100 Elo)
Final: GB 17 , TB 14. Elo moved GB 1472 → 1481, TB 1437 → 1428.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +9.0 · Elo +13.4
Read the post-game report → TEN Titans Elo: BAL 80% Market: BAL 85% Spread: BAL 80% 18–24
Ravens BAL Away Final Home
wind 6 mph, 62°F
—
Elo 20%
Spread 20%
Books 15% · Kalshi 15% · Poly 15% · Crowd 21%
Ward (+19 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 80%
Spread 80%
Books 85% · Kalshi 86% · Poly 86% · Crowd 79%
Jackson (+13 Elo)
Final: BAL 24 , TEN 18. Elo moved BAL 1538 → 1545, TEN 1340 → 1333.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +23.0 · Elo +21.0
Read the post-game report → DAL Cowboys Elo: HOU 61% Market: HOU 58% Spread: HOU 59% 34–30
Texans HOU Away Final Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
—
Elo 39%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 43% · Poly 43% · Crowd 40%
Prescott (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 61%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 57% · Poly 57% · Crowd 60%
Stroud
Final: DAL 34 , HOU 30. Elo moved DAL 1463 → 1483, HOU 1510 → 1489.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -12.2 · Elo -12.2
Read the post-game report → NE Patriots Elo: BUF 65% Market: BUF 74% Spread: BUF 70% 29–26
Bills BUF Away Final Home
wind 11 mph, 67°F
—
Elo 35%
Spread 30%
Books 26% · Kalshi 27% · Poly 27% · Crowd 34%
Maye
no pick
—
Elo 65%
Spread 70%
Books 74% · Kalshi 74% · Poly 74% · Crowd 66%
Allen
Final: NE 29 , BUF 26. Elo moved NE 1551 → 1570, BUF 1621 → 1602.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -25.4 · Elo -17.2
Read the post-game report → JAX Jaguars Elo: CIN 51% Market: CIN 56% Spread: CIN 57% 22–17
Bengals CIN Away Final Home
wind 3 mph, 72°F
—
Elo 49%
Spread 43%
Books 43% · Kalshi 44% · Poly 44% · Crowd 42%
Lawrence
no pick
—
Elo 51%
Spread 57%
Books 57% · Kalshi 56% · Poly 56% · Crowd 58%
Burrow (+17 Elo)
Final: JAX 22 , CIN 17. Elo moved JAX 1584 → 1602, CIN 1526 → 1508.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -5.2 · Elo -1.0
Read the post-game report → MIA Dolphins Elo: MIN 81% Market: MIN 82% Spread: MIN 77% 10–15
Vikings MIN Away Final Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
—
Elo 19%
Spread 23%
Books 18% · Kalshi 18% · Poly 18% · Crowd 21%
Willis (+90 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 81%
Spread 77%
Books 82% · Kalshi 83% · Poly 83% · Crowd 79%
Murray (+100 Elo)
Final: MIN 15 , MIA 10. Elo moved MIN 1585 → 1592, MIA 1395 → 1388.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +22.4 · Elo +21.4
Read the post-game report → LAC Chargers Elo: SEA 79% Market: SEA 75% Spread: SEA 70% 23–30
Seahawks SEA Away Final Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 4 mph, 62°F
—
Elo 21%
Spread 30%
Books 25% · Kalshi 25% · Poly 25% · Crowd 28%
Herbert (+18 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 79%
Spread 70%
Books 75% · Kalshi 76% · Poly 76% · Crowd 72%
Lock (−30 Elo)
Final: SEA 30 , LAC 23. Elo moved SEA 1640 → 1649, LAC 1441 → 1432.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +20.2 · Elo +20.6
Read the post-game report → KC Chiefs Elo: KC 51% Market: KC 67% Spread: KC 63% 30–27
Raiders LV Away Final Home
—
Elo 51%
Spread 63%
Books 66% · Kalshi 68% · Poly 69% · Crowd 63%
Mahomes (+46 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 49%
Spread 37%
Books 34% · Kalshi 33% · Poly 32% · Crowd 37%
Cousins (+70 Elo)
Final: KC 30 , LV 27. Elo moved KC 1552 → 1565, LV 1474 → 1460.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +11.3 · Elo +1.0
Read the post-game report → DEN Broncos Elo: SF 61% Market: SF 59% Spread: SF 59% 14–24
49ers SF Away Final Home
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 4 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 39%
Spread 41%
Books 43% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 41% · Crowd 40%
Nix
no pick
—
Elo 61%
Spread 59%
Books 57% · Kalshi 60% · Poly 60% · Crowd 60%
Purdy
Final: SF 24 , DEN 14. Elo moved SF 1611 → 1629, DEN 1580 → 1562.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +9.0 · Elo +9.8
Read the post-game report → DET Lions Elo: DET 52% Market: DET 66% Spread: DET 63% 26–32
Panthers CAR Away Final Home
wind 1 mph, 65°F
—
Elo 52%
Spread 63%
Books 65% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 67% · Crowd 58%
Goff
no pick
—
Elo 48%
Spread 37%
Books 35% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 34% · Crowd 42%
Young
Final: CAR 32 , DET 26. Elo moved CAR 1464 → 1485, DET 1531 → 1511.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -13.4 · Elo -2.0
Read the post-game report → Monday, Oct 5 ATL Falcons Elo: ATL 50% Market: NO 52% Spread: NO 54% 45–24
Saints NO Away Final Home
—
Elo 50%
Spread 46%
Books 48% · Kalshi 48% · Poly 49% · Crowd 43%
Penix (+28 Elo) · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 50%
Spread 54%
Books 52% · Kalshi 53% · Poly 52% · Crowd 57%
Shough (−16 Elo)
Final: ATL 45 , NO 24. Elo moved ATL 1463 → 1493, NO 1481 → 1451.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -1.0 · Elo +0.0
Read the post-game report →