Predictions · Week 4
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at CLE | PIT 55% ✗ | 52% | 43% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 44% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 42 | Big disagreement | PIT 24, CLE 27 |
| IND at WSH | IND 68% ✓ | 36% | 37% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 32% | 32% | 38% | 38% | 42 | Tight agreement | IND 30, WSH 13 |
| NYJ at CHI | CHI 65% ✓ | 62% | 60% | 63% | 64% | 63% | 65% | 65% | 61% | 60% | 32 | Tight agreement | NYJ 12, CHI 23 |
| ARI at NYG | ARI 53% ✗ | 54% | 43% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 47% | 47% | 54% | 54% | 35 | Everything else | ARI 24, NYG 36 |
| LAR at PHI | LAR 59% ✓ | 54% | 40% | 37% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 41% | 47% | 47% | 47 | Big disagreement | LAR 24, PHI 20 |
| GB at TB | GB 60% ✓ | 34% | 41% | 40% | 42% | 42% | 39% | 40% | 44% | 45% | 37 | Everything else | GB 17, TB 14 |
| TEN at BAL Lock of the week | BAL 86% ✓ | 80% | 80% | 85% | 86% | 86% | 84% | 86% | 79% | 79% | 41 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | TEN 18, BAL 24 |
| DAL at HOU | HOU 61% ✗ | 61% | 59% | 58% | 57% | 57% | 61% | 61% | 60% | 60% | 47 | Tight agreement | DAL 34, HOU 30 |
| NE at BUF | BUF 71% ✗ | 65% | 70% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 71% | 71% | 66% | 65% | 44 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | NE 29, BUF 26 |
| JAX at CIN | CIN 55% ✗ | 51% | 57% | 57% | 56% | 56% | 55% | 55% | 58% | 59% | 47 | Everything else | JAX 22, CIN 17 |
| MIA at MIN | MIN 84% ✓ | 81% | 77% | 82% | 83% | 83% | 84% | 84% | 79% | 79% | 27 | Tight agreement | MIA 10, MIN 15 |
| LAC at SEA | SEA 78% ✓ | 79% | 70% | 75% | 76% | 76% | 78% | 78% | 72% | 71% | 37 | Tight agreement | LAC 23, SEA 30 |
| KC at LV Bold call of the week | KC 63% ✓ | 49% | 37% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 33 | Big disagreement | KC 30, LV 27 |
| DEN at SF | SF 60% ✓ | 61% | 59% | 57% | 60% | 60% | 61% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 39 | Tight agreement | DEN 14, SF 24 |
| DET at CAR | DET 62% ✗ | 48% | 37% | 35% | 35% | 34% | 38% | 38% | 42% | 42% | 54 | Big disagreement | DET 26, CAR 32 |
| ATL at NO | NO 51% ✗ | 50% | 54% | 52% | 53% | 52% | 51% | 51% | 57% | 57% | 49 | Coin flips | ATL 45, NO 24 |
| Points this week | +79.0 | +38.5 | +48.2 | +54.4 | +52.7 | +65.0 | +65.2 | +55.1 | +52.0 | on 16 decided games | |||
| Right | 11/16 | 9/16 | 9/16 | 9/16 | 9/16 | 9/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 10/16 | ||||
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 6 games · favorite 5 for 6 so far
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
30–13
IND over WSH ✓
Elo 64% · Mkt 66% · Blend 68%
IND at WSH · Final
12–23
CHI over NYJ ✓
Elo 62% · Mkt 63% · Blend 65%
NYJ at CHI · Final
34–30
HOU over DAL ✗
Elo 61% · Mkt 58% · Blend 61%
DAL at HOU · Final
10–15
MIN over MIA ✓
Elo 81% · Mkt 82% · Blend 84%
MIA at MIN · Final
23–30
SEA over LAC ✓
Elo 79% · Mkt 75% · Blend 78%
LAC at SEA · Final
14–24
SF over DEN ✓
Elo 61% · Mkt 59% · Blend 61%
DEN at SF · Final
Big disagreement 4 games · favorite 2 for 4 so far
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time.
Coin flips 1 game · favorite 0 for 1 so far
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 2 games · favorite 1 for 2 so far
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 3 games · favorite 1 for 3 so far
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |