Predictions · Week 4
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.
| Game | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at CLE | 47% | 43% | — | — | — | 44% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Fri 12:15 AM |
| IND at WSH | 52% | 54% | — | — | — | 54% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sun 1:30 PM |
| NE at BUF | 62% | 59% | — | — | — | 62% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| NYJ at CHI | 69% | 74% | — | — | — | 72% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| JAX at CIN | 49% | 57% | — | — | — | 55% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 5:00 PM |
| ARI at NYG | 60% | 70% | — | — | — | 67% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 5:00 PM |
| LAR at PHI | 59% | 46% | — | — | — | 49% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| GB at TB | 48% | 46% | — | — | — | 46% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sun 5:00 PM |
| TEN at BAL | 80% | 74% | — | — | — | 75% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| DAL at HOU | 69% | 57% | — | — | — | 60% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| MIA at MIN | 66% | 71% | — | — | — | 70% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 8:05 PM |
| KC at LV | 46% | 34% | — | — | — | 37% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 8:25 PM |
| DEN at SF | 62% | 57% | — | — | — | 59% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 8:25 PM |
| LAC at SEA | 71% | 59% | — | — | — | 62% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 8:25 PM |
| DET at CAR | 45% | 41% | — | — | — | 42% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Mon 12:20 AM |
| ATL at NO | 56% | 57% | — | — | — | 59% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Tue 12:15 AM |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 2 games
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
Big disagreement 4 games
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time.
Coin flips 2 games
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 3 games
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 5 games
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
PIT over CLE
Elo 53% · Mkt 57% · Blend 56%
PIT at CLE · Fri 12 AM
CIN over JAX
Elo 49% · Mkt 57% · Blend 55%
JAX at CIN · Sun 5 PM
NYG over ARI
Elo 60% · Mkt 70% · Blend 67%
ARI at NYG · Sun 5 PM
SF over DEN
Elo 62% · Mkt 57% · Blend 59%
DEN at SF · Sun 8 PM
DET over CAR
Elo 55% · Mkt 59% · Blend 58%
DET at CAR · Mon 12 AM
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 17 | +78.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 17 | +77.4 |
| 3 | The System | 17 | +77.4 |
| 4 | Elo (the model) | 17 | +45.3 |