Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
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Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Final, recorded Sun 12:45 PM ET · markets priced Sun 9:23 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London · Sunday, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · neutral site · outdoors · wind 6 mph, 68°F
Indianapolis Colts2–6 · Elo 1434 · Daniel Jones
30–13
Washington Commanders
2–4–1 · Elo 1443 · Marcus Mariota · Home
Final: IND 30, WSH 13. Elo moved WSH 1457 → 1428 and IND 1476 → 1504.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | WSH | IND | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | IND 64% | 36% | 64% | +12.0 | WSH 1457 vs IND 1476, implied spread WSH +0.2 |
| Closing spread | IND 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 | WSH +4.5 |
| Sportsbooks | IND 66% | 34% | 66% | +13.4 | |
| Kalshi | IND 67% | 34% | 67% | +13.4 | |
| Polymarket | IND 67% | 34% | 67% | +13.4 | |
| The blend | IND 68% | 32% | 68% | +14.8 | |
| The crowd (3) | IND 62% | 38% | 62% | +10.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | IND 62% | 38% | 62% | +10.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Indianapolis Colts over the Commanders: Elo 64%, market 66%. Tight agreement: go above both.
Details
- Importance 42 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 22.
- Rest: WSH 7 days, IND 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. WSH: Marcus Mariota (+9 Elo). IND: Daniel Jones (-6 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 6 mph, 68°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread WSH +4.5, total 46.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.0M traded, $880k open · Polymarket: $1.0M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Colts 30, Commanders 13. Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders, Week 4. The Colts won 30 to 13; the game turned on (Shotgun) A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra. Attendance 60,907. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Colts at 66%, Elo at 64%, The System at 68%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+14.8).
- Elo: Colts 64%, +12.0
- The market: Colts 66%, +13.4
- The System: Colts 68%, +14.8
- The crowd: Colts 62%, +10.6
- The bot crowd: Colts 61%, +9.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way. in the third quarter at 10:39, which moved the home side's chances from 18% to 31%.
- Largest lead: Colts by 17. Lead changes: 1.
- Colts's live win probability ranged from 34% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 7:03: Spencer Shrader 52 Yd Field Goal (IND 20, WSH 13)
- Q4 11:38: Daniel Jones 4 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick) (IND 27, WSH 13)
- Q4 5:48: Spencer Shrader 44 Yd Field Goal (IND 30, WSH 13)
The box score
The Commanders outgained the Colts, 317 to 257; the difference was elsewhere.
- Total yards: IND 257, WSH 317
- Yards per play: IND 3.9, WSH 5.2
- Third downs: IND 5-16, WSH 2-15
- Turnovers: IND 2, WSH 1
- Penalties: IND 1-5, WSH 10-84
- Possession: IND 30:40, WSH 29:20
- Red zone: IND 3-3, WSH 0-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Commanders -28 to 1428, Colts +28 to 1504.
- Daniel Jones (IND): 19/34, 143 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 53.9
- Athan Kaliakmanis (WSH): 15/33, 186 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 60.9
- Rushing: Marcus Mariota (WSH), 1 CAR, 35 YDS
- Receiving: Dyami Brown (WSH), 3 REC, 65 YDS
- Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (IND), 20 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Laquon Treadwell (IND), 5 REC, 42 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +10.5 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +9.7 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Colts 66%, +13.4.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 26, 9 AM ET; last change Sun 9:00 AM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (WSH) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 33% | 34% | +1 | 57 |
| Kalshi | 34% | 34% | — | 61 |
| Sportsbooks | 34% | 34% | — | 23 |
Consensus over time