Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Final, recorded Thu 11:24 PM ET · markets priced Thu 7:55 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · AT&T Stadium · Thursday, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET · closed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3–5 · Elo 1523 · Jalon Daniels (−100 Elo)
24–16
Dallas Cowboys
3–5 · Elo 1443 · Dak Prescott (+17 Elo) · Home
Final: TB 24, DAL 16. Elo moved DAL 1483 → 1445 and TB 1428 → 1466.
Lock of the week. DAL · Elo gives the Dallas Cowboys 75% at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the market says 81%. No game this week has both more sure of the same team. Prescott is worth +17 Elo to the Cowboys; Daniels is worth -100 Elo to the Buccaneers. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DAL | TB | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DAL 78% | 78% | 22% | -35.8 | DAL 1483 vs TB 1428, implied spread DAL −8.8 |
| Closing spread | DAL 76% | 76% | 24% | -32.8 | DAL -9.5 |
| Sportsbooks | DAL 80% | 80% | 20% | -39.0 | |
| Kalshi | DAL 81% | 81% | 19% | -40.6 | |
| Polymarket | DAL 81% | 81% | 19% | -40.6 | |
| The blend | DAL 82% | 82% | 18% | -42.2 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Dallas Cowboys over the Buccaneers: Elo 78%, market 80%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; Daniels is costing 100 Elo.
Details
- Importance 49 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 18.
- Rest: DAL 4 days, TB 4 days.
- Quarterbacks. DAL: Dak Prescott (+17 Elo). TB: Jalon Daniels (-100 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread DAL -9, total 48.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $5.8M traded, $5.6M open · Polymarket: $1.1M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16: the upset. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, Week 5. The Buccaneers won 24 to 16 as a 80% underdog by the market; the game turned on (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle intended for J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by A. Attendance 92,351. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Buccaneers at 20%, Elo at 22%, The System at 16%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-35.8).
This was the lock (Dallas Cowboys) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Buccaneers 22%, -35.8
- The market: Buccaneers 20%, -39.0
- The System: Buccaneers 16%, -45.6
- The bot crowd: Buccaneers 17%, -43.9
How it happened
The swing: (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle intended for J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at TB 12. A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain. in the fourth quarter at 1:22, which moved the home side's chances from 22% to 3%.
- Largest lead: Buccaneers by 14. Lead changes: 1.
- Buccaneers's live win probability ranged from 8% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 7:31: Bucky Irving 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick) (TB 21, DAL 10)
- Q3 2:58: Chase McLaughlin 41 Yd Field Goal (TB 24, DAL 10)
- Q4 5:26: George Pickens 18 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (TB 24, DAL 16)
The box score
The Buccaneers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: TB 419, DAL 366
- Yards per play: TB 6.4, DAL 6.7
- Third downs: TB 7-13, DAL 4-10
- Turnovers: TB 0, DAL 3
- Penalties: TB 14-92, DAL 7-57
- Possession: TB 39:21, DAL 20:39
- Red zone: TB 3-5, DAL 2-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Cowboys -38 to 1445, Buccaneers +38 to 1466. The quarterback adjustment going in was DAL +17, TB -100.
- Jalon Daniels (TB): 19/25, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 110.2
- Dak Prescott (DAL): 24/42, 316 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 69.1
- Rushing: Javonte Williams (DAL), 12 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: George Pickens (DAL), 9 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Bucky Irving (TB), 21 CAR, 165 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Tez Johnson (TB), 1 REC, 64 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -37.4 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -43.3 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Cowboys 77%, -34.3.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Wed, Sep 30, 8 PM ET; last change Thu 6:31 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from DAL by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DAL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 82% | 81% | -1 | 63 |
| Polymarket | 82% | 81% | -1 | 36 |
| Sportsbooks | 80% | 80% | — | 15 |
Consensus over time