The Report · data-driven NFL insights, delivered every morning

Can you beat The System?

Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System, our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.
Create an accountHow it worksSee this week's numbers

Week 5

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

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Wild CardDivisionalConf. Champ.Super Bowl

Thursday, Oct 8

TBBuccaneers
Elo: DAL 78%Market: DAL 80%Spread: DAL 76%
24–16
CowboysDAL
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
—
Elo 22%
Spread 24%
Books 20% · Kalshi 19% · Poly 19% · Crowd 21%
Daniels (−100 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 78%
Spread 76%
Books 80% · Kalshi 81% · Poly 81% · Crowd 79%
Prescott (+17 Elo)
Final: TB 24, DAL 16. Elo moved TB 1428 → 1466, DAL 1483 → 1445.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -45.6 · Elo -35.8
Read the post-game report →

Sunday, Oct 11

PHIEagles
Elo: JAX 63%Market: JAX 77%Spread: JAX 71%
17–19
JaguarsJAX
Neutral siteFinal
wind 5 mph, 58°F
—
Elo 37%
Spread 29%
Books 23% · Kalshi 24% · Poly 24% · Crowd 41%
Hurts (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 63%
Spread 71%
Books 77% · Kalshi 77% · Poly 77% · Crowd 60%
Lawrence
Final: JAX 19, PHI 17. Elo moved JAX 1602 → 1610, PHI 1492 → 1485.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +17.7 · Elo +11.3
Read the post-game report →
NYGGiants
Elo: WSH 60%Market: WSH 63%Spread: WSH 60%
27–27
CommandersWSH
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 13 mph, 66°F
—
Elo 40%
Spread 40%
Books 37% · Kalshi 38% · Poly 38% · Crowd 40%
Winston (−71 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 60%
Spread 60%
Books 63% · Kalshi 63% · Poly 63% · Crowd 60%
Daniels (+15 Elo)
Final: NYG 27, WSH 27, a tie. Elo moved NYG 1495 → 1496, WSH 1428 → 1427.
No pick, counts as 0.
Read the post-game report →
HOUTexans
Elo: HOU 63%Market: HOU 74%Spread: HOU 69%
26–3
TitansTEN
AwayFinalHome
wind 9 mph, 65°F
—
Elo 63%
Spread 69%
Books 74% · Kalshi 75% · Poly 75% · Crowd 72%
Stroud
no pick
—
Elo 37%
Spread 31%
Books 26% · Kalshi 26% · Poly 26% · Crowd 28%
Ward (+19 Elo)
Final: HOU 26, TEN 3. Elo moved HOU 1489 → 1512, TEN 1333 → 1310.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +16.6 · Elo +11.3
Read the post-game report →
INDColts
Elo: PIT 61%Market: PIT 59%Spread: PIT 59%
22–34
SteelersPIT
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 19 mph (matters), 65°F
—
Elo 39%
Spread 41%
Books 41% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 42% · Crowd 43%
Jones
no pick
—
Elo 61%
Spread 59%
Books 59% · Kalshi 60% · Poly 59% · Crowd 57%
off bye · Rodgers
Final: PIT 34, IND 22. Elo moved PIT 1508 → 1527, IND 1504 → 1485.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +8.2 · Elo +9.8
Read the post-game report →
CINBengals
Elo: MIA 50%Market: CIN 76%Spread: CIN 70%
31–24
DolphinsMIA
AwayFinalHome
wind 11 mph, 90°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 50%
Spread 70%
Books 76% · Kalshi 76% · Poly 76% · Crowd 74%
Burrow (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 50%
Spread 30%
Books 24% · Kalshi 25% · Poly 25% · Crowd 26%
Willis (+90 Elo)
Final: CIN 31, MIA 24. Elo moved CIN 1508 → 1528, MIA 1388 → 1368.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +14.1 · Elo +0.0
Read the post-game report →
LVRaiders
Elo: NE 63%Market: NE 62%Spread: NE 60%
17–45
PatriotsNE
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
wind 8 mph, 62°F
—
Elo 37%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 38% · Poly 38% · Crowd 40%
Cousins (+70 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 63%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 63% · Poly 63% · Crowd 61%
Maye
Final: NE 45, LV 17. Elo moved NE 1570 → 1594, LV 1460 → 1436.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +12.0 · Elo +11.3
Read the post-game report →
MINVikings
Elo: MIN 77%Market: MIN 56%Spread: MIN 57%
23–13
SaintsNO
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 77%
Spread 57%
Books 56% · Kalshi 55% · Poly 55% · Crowd 57%
Murray (+100 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 23%
Spread 43%
Books 44% · Kalshi 45% · Poly 45% · Crowd 43%
Shough (−16 Elo)
Final: MIN 23, NO 13. Elo moved MIN 1592 → 1602, NO 1451 → 1441.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +9.8 · Elo +19.7
Read the post-game report →
CHIBears
Elo: GB 55%Market: CHI 52%Spread: CHI 54%
7–31
PackersGB
AwayFinalHome
wind 13 mph, 71°F
—
Elo 45%
Spread 54%
Books 52% · Kalshi 53% · Poly 52% · Crowd 44%
Bagent (−100 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 55%
Spread 46%
Books 48% · Kalshi 48% · Poly 49% · Crowd 56%
Love
Final: GB 31, CHI 7. Elo moved GB 1481 → 1509, CHI 1594 → 1566.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +0.0 · Elo +4.8
Read the post-game report →
CLEBrowns
Elo: CLE 58%Market: NYJ 56%Spread: NYJ 57%
12–17
JetsNYJ
AwayFinalHome
wind 14 mph, 63°F
—
Elo 58%
Spread 43%
Books 44% · Kalshi 44% · Poly 44% · Crowd 50%
Watson (+34 Elo) · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 42%
Spread 57%
Books 56% · Kalshi 56% · Poly 56% · Crowd 51%
Smith (+22 Elo)
Final: NYJ 17, CLE 12. Elo moved NYJ 1399 → 1421, CLE 1467 → 1446.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +2.9 · Elo -8.6
Read the post-game report →
DENBroncos
Elo: DEN 59%Market: DEN 63%Spread: DEN 60%
23–17
ChargersLAC
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 59%
Spread 60%
Books 63% · Kalshi 64% · Poly 63% · Crowd 60%
Nix
no pick
—
Elo 41%
Spread 40%
Books 37% · Kalshi 37% · Poly 38% · Crowd 41%
Herbert (+18 Elo)
Final: DEN 23, LAC 17. Elo moved DEN 1562 → 1578, LAC 1432 → 1417.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +10.6 · Elo +8.2
Read the post-game report →
DETLions
Elo: DET 59%Market: DET 69%Spread: DET 66%
45–21
CardinalsARI
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 59%
Spread 66%
Books 68% · Kalshi 70% · Poly 70% · Crowd 64%
Goff
no pick
—
Elo 41%
Spread 34%
Books 32% · Kalshi 31% · Poly 31% · Crowd 37%
Brissett (−40 Elo)
Final: DET 45, ARI 21. Elo moved DET 1511 → 1536, ARI 1438 → 1412.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +14.1 · Elo +8.2
Read the post-game report →
SF49ers
Elo: SEA 59%Market: SEA 60%Spread: SEA 59%
32–29
SeahawksSEA
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
wind 7 mph, 57°F
—
Elo 41%
Spread 41%
Books 39% · Kalshi 40% · Poly 41% · Crowd 40%
Purdy
no pick
—
Elo 59%
Spread 59%
Books 61% · Kalshi 61% · Poly 60% · Crowd 61%
Lock (−30 Elo)
Final: SF 32, SEA 29. Elo moved SF 1629 → 1645, SEA 1649 → 1633.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -13.4 · Elo -9.8
Read the post-game report →
BALRavens
Elo: ATL 56%Market: ATL 62%Spread: ATL 60%
30–23
FalconsATL
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 44%
Spread 40%
Books 39% · Kalshi 38% · Poly 38% · Crowd 63%
Huntley (−16 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 56%
Spread 60%
Books 61% · Kalshi 63% · Poly 63% · Crowd 37%
Penix (+28 Elo)
Final: BAL 30, ATL 23. Elo moved BAL 1545 → 1569, ATL 1493 → 1470.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -11.0 · Elo -6.4
Read the post-game report →

Monday, Oct 12

BUFBills
Elo: LAR 53%Market: LAR 62%Spread: LAR 60%
37–34
RamsLAR
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 47%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 39% · Poly 39% · Crowd 45%
Allen
no pick
—
Elo 53%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 62% · Poly 62% · Crowd 55%
Stafford
Final: BUF 37, LAR 34. Elo moved BUF 1602 → 1617, LAR 1566 → 1552.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -9.8 · Elo -3.1
Read the post-game report →