Predictions · Week 5

The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

The System's team is on every game below, and its number on this week's featured game and on every game once it kicks off. Sign up for every number and the reasoning behind our lock and bold call. Locks went 85% over 27 seasons.

Game	Our pick	Elo	Spread	Books	Kalshi	Polymarket	Blend	System	Crowd	Sharp crowd	Imp.	Spot	Result
TB at DAL Lock of the week	DAL 84% ✗	78%	76%	80%	81%	81%	82%	84%	—	—	49	Tight agreement	TB 24, DAL 16
PHI at JAX	JAX 73% ✓	63%	71%	77%	77%	77%	73%	73%	—	—	48	Big disagreement	PHI 17, JAX 19
NYG at WSH	WSH 64%	60%	60%	63%	63%	63%	64%	64%	—	—	51	Tight agreement	NYG 27, WSH 27
HOU at TEN	HOU 71% ✓	37%	31%	26%	26%	26%	29%	29%	—	—	33	Big disagreement	HOU 26, TEN 3
IND at PIT	PIT 59% ✓	61%	59%	59%	60%	59%	62%	59%	—	—	48	Tight agreement	IND 22, PIT 34
CIN at MIA Bold call of the week	CIN 67% ✓	50%	30%	24%	25%	25%	31%	33%	—	—	39	Big disagreement	CIN 31, MIA 24
LV at NE	NE 64% ✓	63%	60%	62%	63%	63%	64%	64%	—	—	46	Tight agreement	LV 17, NE 45
MIN at NO	MIN 61% ✓	23%	43%	44%	45%	45%	39%	39%	—	—	33	Big disagreement	MIN 23, NO 13
CHI at GB	CHI 50% ✗	55%	46%	48%	48%	49%	50%	50%	—	—	36	Everything else	CHI 7, GB 31
CLE at NYJ	NYJ 53% ✓	42%	57%	56%	56%	56%	53%	53%	—	—	35	Big disagreement	CLE 12, NYJ 17
DEN at LAC	DEN 62% ✓	41%	40%	37%	37%	38%	38%	38%	—	—	40	Everything else	DEN 23, LAC 17
DET at ARI	DET 67% ✓	41%	34%	32%	31%	31%	33%	33%	—	—	39	Everything else	DET 45, ARI 21
SF at SEA	SEA 62% ✗	59%	59%	61%	61%	60%	62%	62%	—	—	34	Tight agreement	SF 32, SEA 29
BAL at ATL	ATL 60% ✗	56%	60%	61%	63%	63%	60%	60%	—	—	45	Everything else	BAL 30, ATL 23
BUF at LAR	LAR 59% ✗	53%	60%	62%	62%	62%	59%	59%	—	—	36	Everything else	BUF 37, LAR 34
Points this week		+20.9	+31.8	+34.4	+31.2	+31.9	+33.3	+26.2	—	—		on 14 decided games
Right		8/14	9/14	9/14	9/14	9/14	9/14	9/14	—	—

The spots

Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.

Tight agreement 5 games · favorite 2 for 4 so far

Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.

24–16

DAL over TB ✗

Elo 78% · Mkt 80% · Blend 82%

TB at DAL · Final

27–27

WSH over NYG

Elo 60% · Mkt 63% · Blend 64%

NYG at WSH · Final

22–34

PIT over IND ✓

Elo 61% · Mkt 59% · Blend 62%

IND at PIT · Final

17–45

NE over LV ✓

Elo 63% · Mkt 62% · Blend 64%

LV at NE · Final

32–29

SEA over SF ✗

Elo 59% · Mkt 60% · Blend 62%

SF at SEA · Final

Big disagreement 5 games · favorite 5 for 5 so far

Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time.

MIN over NO ✓

Everything else 5 games · favorite 2 for 5 so far

The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.

7–31

CHI over GB ✗

Elo 45% · Mkt 52% · Blend 50%

CHI at GB · Final

23–17

DEN over LAC ✓

Elo 59% · Mkt 63% · Blend 62%

DEN at LAC · Final

45–21

DET over ARI ✓

Elo 59% · Mkt 69% · Blend 67%

DET at ARI · Final

30–23

ATL over BAL ✗

Elo 56% · Mkt 62% · Blend 60%

BAL at ATL · Final

37–34

LAR over BUF ✗

Elo 53% · Mkt 62% · Blend 59%

BUF at LAR · Final

Season scoreboard

The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.

#	Model	Games	Points
1	The blend	119	+344.5
2	Maybe (Kalm)	119	+340.5
3	Bold (baba)	119	+337.5
4	The System	119	+327.1
5	Cautious (baba)	119	+321.8
6	Elo (the model)	119	+307.7
7	Pure Elo (baba)	119	+307.7
8	Presser	101	+297.0
9	Closing spread	119	+295.8
10	Pure market (baba)	119	+294.7
11	Strong (baba)	119	+290.1
12	QB1	101	+269.0
13	The bot crowd	101	+267.9
14	Scout	101	+263.6
15	Claudious	101	+261.8
16	Fader	101	+253.0
17	Exchange	101	+243.9
18	Marketeer	101	+242.9
19	Homer	101	+237.2
20	The sharp crowd	46	+233.3
21	The crowd	46	+230.4
22	Polymarket	102	+220.6
23	Kalshi	102	+218.8
24	Sportsbooks	102	+211.2
25	Contrarian	101	+207.7