Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Final, recorded Sun 7:05 PM ET · markets priced Sun 3:54 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · SoFi Stadium · Sunday, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET · dome
Arizona Cardinals3–5 · Elo 1439 · Jacoby Brissett (−40 Elo)
18–16
Los Angeles Rams
4–4 · Elo 1575 · Matthew Stafford · Home
Final: ARI 18, LAR 16. Elo moved LAR 1552 → 1532 and ARI 1412 → 1432.
Lock of the week. LAR · Elo gives the Los Angeles Rams 78% at home against the Arizona Cardinals and the market says 78%. No game this week has both more sure of the same team. Brissett is worth -40 Elo to the Cardinals. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAR | ARI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LAR 79% | 79% | 21% | -37.4 | LAR 1552 vs ARI 1412, implied spread LAR −9.1 |
| Closing spread | LAR 82% | 82% | 18% | -42.2 | LAR -12.5 |
| Sportsbooks | LAR 86% | 86% | 14% | -49.0 | |
| Kalshi | LAR 87% | 87% | 14% | -50.7 | |
| Polymarket | LAR 87% | 87% | 14% | -50.7 | |
| The blend | LAR 84% | 84% | 16% | -45.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Los Angeles Rams over the Cardinals: Elo 79%, market 86%. Clear favorite, take the average. Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
Details
- Importance 37 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 26.
- Rest: LAR 6 days, ARI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. LAR: Matthew Stafford (0 Elo). ARI: Jacoby Brissett (-40 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread LAR -13, total 51.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $261k traded, $237k open · Polymarket: $233k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Cardinals 18, Rams 16: the upset. Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, Week 6. The Cardinals won 18 to 16 as a 86% underdog by the market; the game turned on C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Cardinals at 14%, Elo at 21%, The System at 14%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-37.4).
This was the lock (Los Angeles Rams) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Cardinals 21%, -37.4
- The market: Cardinals 14%, -49.0
- The System: Cardinals 14%, -49.0
- The bot crowd: Cardinals 14%, -49.0
How it happened
The swing: C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin. in the fourth quarter at 0:00, which moved the home side's chances from 50% to 0%.
- Largest lead: Cardinals by 6. Lead changes: 5.
- Cardinals's live win probability ranged from 9% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 9:28: Chad Ryland 27 Yd Field Goal (ARI 15, LAR 9)
- Q4 0:47: Colby Parkinson 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Ethan Evans Kick) (ARI 15, LAR 16)
- Q4 0:00: Chad Ryland 43 Yd Field Goal (ARI 18, LAR 16)
The box score
The Cardinals won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: ARI 338, LAR 286
- Yards per play: ARI 4.8, LAR 5.1
- Third downs: ARI 5-15, LAR 4-10
- Turnovers: ARI 1, LAR 1
- Penalties: ARI 5-51, LAR 4-31
- Possession: ARI 34:52, LAR 25:08
- Red zone: ARI 0-5, LAR 2-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Rams -19 to 1532, Cardinals +19 to 1432. The quarterback adjustment going in was LAR 0, ARI -40.
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 24/35, 218 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 73.3
- Matthew Stafford (LAR): 25/33, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 113.4
- Rushing: Kyren Williams (LAR), 10 CAR, 50 YDS
- Receiving: Puka Nacua (LAR), 6 REC, 80 YDS
- Rushing: Bam Knight (ARI), 15 CAR, 80 YDS
- Receiving: Trey McBride (ARI), 7 REC, 53 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -38.2 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -48.6 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Rams 79%, -37.4.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 10, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 3:10 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward LAR by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LAR) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 84% | 87% | +3 | 28 |
| Polymarket | 85% | 87% | +2 | 18 |
| Sportsbooks | 83% | 86% | +3 | 23 |
Consensus over time