Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Final, recorded Sun 3:59 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:55 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 7, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 3 mph, 65°F
Miami Dolphins1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo) · off a bye
28–25
New York Jets
2–6 · Elo 1380 · Geno Smith (+22 Elo) · Home
Final: MIA 28, NYJ 25. Elo moved NYJ 1412 → 1398 and MIA 1368 → 1381.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | MIA | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | NYJ 1412 vs MIA 1368, implied spread NYJ +0.0 |
| Closing spread | NYJ 60% | 60% | 40% | -11.0 | NYJ -3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NYJ 65% | 65% | 35% | -17.2 | |
| Kalshi | NYJ 65% | 65% | 36% | -17.2 | |
| Polymarket | NYJ 65% | 65% | 36% | -17.2 | |
| The blend | NYJ 61% | 61% | 39% | -12.2 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
New York Jets over the Dolphins: Elo 50%, market 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo; MIA off a bye.
Details
- Importance 22 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 0.
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, MIA 14 days. MIA off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. NYJ: Geno Smith (+22 Elo). MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 3 mph, 65°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread NYJ -4, total 39.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $180k traded, $170k open · Polymarket: $72k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Dolphins 28, Jets 25: the upset. Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, Week 7. The Dolphins won 28 to 25 as a 65% underdog by the market; the game turned on M.Willis pass short left to C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on NYJ-B.Stephens, R. Attendance 72,456. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Dolphins at 35%, Elo at 50%, The System at 39%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+0.0).
- Elo: Dolphins 50%, +0.0
- The market: Dolphins 35%, -17.2
- The System: Dolphins 39%, -12.2
- The bot crowd: Dolphins 39%, -12.2
How it happened
The swing: M.Willis pass short left to C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on NYJ-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion. in the fourth quarter at 4:44, which moved the home side's chances from 23% to 3%.
- Largest lead: Dolphins by 14. Lead changes: 0.
- Dolphins's live win probability ranged from 35% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 8:57: Jason Sanders 33 Yd Field Goal (MIA 21, NYJ 17)
- Q4 4:44: Caleb Douglas 63 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Zane Gonzalez Kick) (MIA 28, NYJ 17)
- Q4 3:24: Mason Taylor 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Mason Taylor for Two-Point Conversion) (MIA 28, NYJ 25)
The box score
The Jets outgained the Dolphins (377 to 360 yards) and lost on turnovers (1 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: MIA 360, NYJ 377
- Yards per play: MIA 5.6, NYJ 7.1
- Third downs: MIA 5-12, NYJ 7-13
- Turnovers: MIA 0, NYJ 1
- Penalties: MIA 5-26, NYJ 6-36
- Possession: MIA 34:36, NYJ 25:24
- Red zone: MIA 3-3, NYJ 3-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Jets -14 to 1398, Dolphins +14 to 1381. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYJ +22, MIA +90.
- Malik Willis (MIA): 14/21, 208 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 130.7
- Geno Smith (NYJ): 23/30, 287 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 125.3
- Rushing: Braelon Allen (NYJ), 17 CAR, 104 YDS
- Receiving: Omar Cooper Jr. (NYJ), 5 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Ollie Gordon II (MIA), 25 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Greg Dulcich (MIA), 5 REC, 86 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -15.3 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -12.4 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Contrarian, Jets 50%, +0.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 17, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:55 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from NYJ by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NYJ) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 68% | 65% | -4 | 31 |
| Polymarket | 67% | 65% | -3 | 30 |
| Sportsbooks | 66% | 65% | -1 | 21 |
Consensus over time