The Report · data-driven NFL insights, delivered every morning

Can you beat The System?

Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System, our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 7

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Thursday, Oct 22

NEPatriots
Elo: CHI 54%Market: CHI 59%Spread: CHI 59%
24–30
BearsCHI
AwayFinalHome
wind 5 mph, 56°F
—
Elo 46%
Spread 41%
Books 41% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 41% · Crowd 47%
Maye
no pick
—
Elo 54%
Spread 59%
Books 59% · Kalshi 60% · Poly 60% · Crowd 54%
Williams
Final: CHI 30, NE 24. Elo moved CHI 1586 → 1604, NE 1604 → 1586.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +7.4 · Elo +3.8
Read the post-game report →

Sunday, Oct 25

PITSteelers
Elo: PIT 63%Market: PIT 60%Spread: PIT 59%
16–10
SaintsNO
Neutral siteFinal
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
—
Elo 63%
Spread 59%
Books 60% · Kalshi 60% · Poly 60% · Crowd 57%
Rodgers
no pick
—
Elo 37%
Spread 41%
Books 40% · Kalshi 41% · Poly 41% · Crowd 43%
Shough (−16 Elo)
Final: PIT 16, NO 10. Elo moved PIT 1542 → 1556, NO 1465 → 1451.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +10.6 · Elo +11.3
Read the post-game report →
CINBengals
Elo: BAL 52%Market: CIN 60%Spread: CIN 59%
35–13
RavensBAL
AwayFinalHome
wind 1 mph, 63°F
—
Elo 48%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 61% · Poly 61% · Crowd 41%
Burrow (+17 Elo) · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 52%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 40% · Poly 40% · Crowd 59%
Huntley (−16 Elo)
Final: CIN 35, BAL 13. Elo moved CIN 1528 → 1561, BAL 1554 → 1521.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +6.5 · Elo -2.0
Read the post-game report →
NYGGiants
Elo: HOU 76%Market: HOU 80%Spread: HOU 77%
27–21
TexansHOU
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 24%
Spread 23%
Books 20% · Kalshi 19% · Poly 19% · Crowd 26%
McCarthy (−88 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 76%
Spread 77%
Books 80% · Kalshi 81% · Poly 81% · Crowd 74%
Stroud
Final: NYG 27, HOU 21. Elo moved NYG 1472 → 1504, HOU 1530 → 1498.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -40.6 · Elo -32.8
Read the post-game report →
SF49ers
Elo: SF 67%Market: SF 58%Spread: SF 57%
20–29
FalconsATL
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 67%
Spread 57%
Books 57% · Kalshi 57% · Poly 59% · Crowd 68%
Purdy
no pick
—
Elo 33%
Spread 43%
Books 43% · Kalshi 43% · Poly 42% · Crowd 32%
Penix (+28 Elo)
Final: ATL 29, SF 20. Elo moved ATL 1449 → 1482, SF 1651 → 1619.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -11.0 · Elo -19.9
Read the post-game report →
TBBuccaneers
Elo: CAR 65%Market: CAR 60%Spread: CAR 59%
43–13
PanthersCAR
AwayFinalHome
wind 11 mph, 64°F
—
Elo 35%
Spread 41%
Books 41% · Kalshi 40% · Poly 41% · Crowd 40%
Mayfield
no pick
—
Elo 65%
Spread 59%
Books 59% · Kalshi 61% · Poly 60% · Crowd 61%
Young
Final: TB 43, CAR 13. Elo moved TB 1451 → 1498, CAR 1509 → 1461.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -12.2 · Elo -17.2
Read the post-game report →
CLEBrowns
Elo: CLE 62%Market: CLE 55%Spread: CLE 54%
27–24
TitansTEN
AwayFinalHome
wind 1 mph, 71°F
—
Elo 62%
Spread 54%
Books 55% · Kalshi 54% · Poly 54% · Crowd 55%
Watson (+34 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 38%
Spread 46%
Books 45% · Kalshi 46% · Poly 46% · Crowd 45%
Ward (+19 Elo)
Final: CLE 27, TEN 24. Elo moved CLE 1461 → 1471, TEN 1343 → 1332.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +5.6 · Elo +10.6
Read the post-game report →
INDColts
Elo: MIN 87%Market: MIN 74%Spread: MIN 69%
10–16
VikingsMIN
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 13%
Spread 31%
Books 27% · Kalshi 26% · Poly 26% · Crowd 30%
Jones
no pick
—
Elo 87%
Spread 69%
Books 73% · Kalshi 75% · Poly 75% · Crowd 71%
off bye · Murray (+100 Elo)
Final: MIN 16, IND 10. Elo moved MIN 1602 → 1606, IND 1453 → 1448.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +19.7 · Elo +23.3
Read the post-game report →
MIADolphins
Elo: MIA 50%Market: NYJ 65%Spread: NYJ 60%
28–25
JetsNYJ
AwayFinalHome
wind 3 mph, 65°F
—
Elo 50%
Spread 40%
Books 35% · Kalshi 36% · Poly 36% · Crowd 37%
Willis (+90 Elo) · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 50%
Spread 60%
Books 65% · Kalshi 65% · Poly 65% · Crowd 64%
Smith (+22 Elo)
Final: MIA 28, NYJ 25. Elo moved MIA 1368 → 1381, NYJ 1412 → 1398.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -12.2 · Elo +0.0
Read the post-game report →
DENBroncos
Elo: DEN 73%Market: DEN 67%Spread: DEN 63%
30–16
CardinalsARI
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 73%
Spread 63%
Books 67% · Kalshi 67% · Poly 68% · Crowd 67%
Nix · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 27%
Spread 37%
Books 33% · Kalshi 34% · Poly 33% · Crowd 33%
Brissett (−40 Elo)
Final: DEN 30, ARI 16. Elo moved DEN 1591 → 1604, ARI 1432 → 1418.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +15.4 · Elo +17.7
Read the post-game report →
LARRams
Elo: LV 52%Market: LAR 61%Spread: LAR 60%
35–21
RaidersLV
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 48%
Spread 60%
Books 61% · Kalshi 62% · Poly 62% · Crowd 65%
Stafford
no pick
—
Elo 52%
Spread 40%
Books 39% · Kalshi 39% · Poly 39% · Crowd 35%
Cousins (+70 Elo)
Final: LAR 35, LV 21. Elo moved LAR 1532 → 1560, LV 1424 → 1396.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +7.4 · Elo -2.0
Read the post-game report →
GBPackers
Elo: DET 61%Market: DET 65%Spread: DET 60%
17–20
LionsDET
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
—
Elo 39%
Spread 40%
Books 36% · Kalshi 36% · Poly 35% · Crowd 41%
Love
no pick
—
Elo 61%
Spread 60%
Books 64% · Kalshi 65% · Poly 66% · Crowd 60%
off bye · Goff
Final: DET 20, GB 17. Elo moved DET 1536 → 1546, GB 1528 → 1518.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +13.4 · Elo +9.8
Read the post-game report →
KCChiefs
Elo: SEA 60%Market: SEA 58%Spread: SEA 59%
3–20
SeahawksSEA
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 4 mph, 54°F
—
Elo 40%
Spread 41%
Books 42% · Kalshi 42% · Poly 42% · Crowd 40%
Mahomes (+46 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 60%
Spread 59%
Books 58% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 59% · Crowd 60%
off bye · Darnold
Final: SEA 20, KC 3. Elo moved SEA 1620 → 1643, KC 1575 → 1553.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +9.8 · Elo +9.0
Read the post-game report →

Monday, Oct 26

DALCowboys
Elo: PHI 55%Market: DAL 66%Spread: DAL 63%
38–21
EaglesPHI
AwayFinalHome
wind 5 mph, 59°F
—
Elo 45%
Spread 63%
Books 66% · Kalshi 67% · Poly 67% · Crowd 56%
Prescott (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 55%
Spread 37%
Books 34% · Kalshi 34% · Poly 34% · Crowd 44%
Hurts (+17 Elo)
Final: DAL 38, PHI 21. Elo moved DAL 1427 → 1464, PHI 1461 → 1424.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +9.8 · Elo -5.2
Read the post-game report →