Predictions · Week 7
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at CHI | CHI 58% ✓ | 54% | 59% | 59% | 60% | 60% | 58% | 58% | — | — | 40 | Everything else | NE 24, CHI 30 |
| PIT at NO | PIT 62% ✓ | 37% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 41% | 38% | 38% | — | — | 38 | Tight agreement | PIT 16, NO 10 |
| CIN at BAL | CIN 57% ✓ | 52% | 41% | 42% | 40% | 40% | 43% | 43% | — | — | 58 | Big disagreement | CIN 35, BAL 13 |
| NYG at HOU Lock of the week | HOU 81% ✗ | 76% | 77% | 80% | 81% | 81% | 79% | 81% | — | — | 48 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | NYG 27, HOU 21 |
| SF at ATL | SF 60% ✗ | 33% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 42% | 40% | 40% | — | — | 30 | Everything else | SF 20, ATL 29 |
| TB at CAR | CAR 61% ✗ | 65% | 59% | 59% | 61% | 60% | 61% | 61% | — | — | 47 | Everything else | TB 43, CAR 13 |
| CLE at TEN | CLE 56% ✓ | 38% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 46% | 44% | 44% | — | — | 40 | Everything else | CLE 27, TEN 24 |
| IND at MIN | MIN 77% ✓ | 87% | 69% | 73% | 75% | 75% | 77% | 77% | — | — | 29 | Big disagreement | IND 10, MIN 16 |
| MIA at NYJ | NYJ 61% ✗ | 50% | 60% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 61% | 61% | — | — | 22 | Big disagreement | MIA 28, NYJ 25 |
| DEN at ARI | DEN 69% ✓ | 27% | 37% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 31% | 31% | — | — | 37 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | DEN 30, ARI 16 |
| LAR at LV Bold call of the week | LAR 58% ✓ | 52% | 40% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 42% | 42% | — | — | 41 | Big disagreement | LAR 35, LV 21 |
| GB at DET | DET 66% ✓ | 61% | 60% | 64% | 65% | 66% | 66% | 66% | — | — | 58 | Tight agreement | GB 17, DET 20 |
| KC at SEA | SEA 61% ✓ | 60% | 59% | 58% | 59% | 59% | 61% | 61% | 60% | 60% | 28 | Tight agreement | KC 3, SEA 20 |
| DAL at PHI | DAL 61% ✓ | 55% | 37% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 39% | 39% | 44% | 45% | 44 | Big disagreement | DAL 38, PHI 21 |
| Points this week | +6.4 | +30.0 | +30.3 | +28.9 | +30.3 | +32.8 | +29.6 | +14.6 | +13.8 | on 14 decided games | |||
| Right | 8/14 | 10/14 | 10/14 | 10/14 | 10/14 | 10/14 | 10/14 | 2/2 | 2/2 | ||||
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |