Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Score updated just now · markets priced 3 h ago · this page re-reads every 1 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Lumen Field · Monday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET · outdoors · wind 2 mph, 46°F (cold helps favorites)
Chicago Bears5–2 · Elo 1604 · Caleb Williams · off a bye
20–17
Seattle Seahawks
4–3 · Elo 1643 · Sam Darnold · Home
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SEA | CHI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | SEA 1643 vs CHI 1604, implied spread SEA −2.4 |
| Closing spread | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | SEA -3 |
| Sportsbooks | SEA 62% | 62% | 38% | |
| Kalshi | SEA 63% | 63% | 38% | |
| Polymarket | SEA 62% | 62% | 39% | |
| The blend | SEA 63% | 63% | 37% | |
| The crowd (3) | SEA 58% | 58% | 42% | |
| The sharp crowd | SEA 58% | 58% | 42% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Seattle Seahawks over the Bears: Elo 59%, market 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. CHI off a bye; wind 2 mph, 46°F (cold helps favorites).
Details
- Importance 48 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 74.
- Rest: SEA 8 days, CHI 11 days. CHI off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. SEA: Sam Darnold (-2 Elo). CHI: Caleb Williams (0 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 2 mph, 46°F (cold helps favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread SEA -3, total 46.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $3.9M traded, $3.7M open · Polymarket: $870k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Case Keenum | QB | Out | Coach's Decision · Keenum (coach's decision) is inactive but will operate as the Bears' emergency third quarterback for Monday night's matchup against the Seahawks. |
| CHI | Jayden Loving | DT | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| CHI | Jordan McFadden | G | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| CHI | Jordan van den Berg | DT | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| CHI | Kyle Monangai | RB | Out | Thumb · inactive |
| CHI | Malik Muhammad II | CB | Out | Toe · Muhammad (toe) is inactive for Monday's game against the Seahawks. |
| SEA | Beau Stephens | G | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| SEA | Brandon Pili | DT | Out | Back · Pili (back) is inactive for Monday night's game against the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| SEA | Charles Cross | OT | Out | Ankle · inactive |
| SEA | Drew Lock | QB | Out | Elbow · Lock (coach's decision) is inactive for Monday's matchup with the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| SEA | Rashid Shaheed | WR | Out | Knee · inactive |
| SEA | Uchenna Nwosu | LB | Out | Ankle · Nwosu (ankle) is inactive for Monday's clash with the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| SEA | Velus Jones Jr. | RB | Out | Hamstring · inactive |
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sun, Oct 25, 9 PM ET; last change Mon 7:59 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward SEA by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (SEA) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 59% | 63% | +4 | 48 |
| Polymarket | 59% | 62% | +3 | 13 |
| Sportsbooks | 61% | 62% | +1 | 12 |
Consensus over time